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Premier League

Referee: Michael Oliver

Man City

S S U S S

1–0

Full-time

Chelsea

S T T S T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Man City Chelsea

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 50%

67%

33%

Points per game

2,2

1,2

Over 2.5 Ø 83%

83%

Both score Ø 50%

67%

33%

Average goals

4,2

3,0

Scored

3,0

1,5

Conceded

1,2

1,5

Goal diff per game

+1,8

+0,0

This season — Premier League · 28/28 matches

Win Ø 72%

86%

57%

Points per game

2,7

1,9

Over 2.5 Ø 66%

75%

57%

Both score Ø 47%

54%

39%

Average goals

3,6

2,7

Scored

2,9

1,8

Conceded

0,7

0,9

Goal diff per game

+2,2

+0,9

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

71% Possession 29%

13 Shots 3

3 Shots on target 0

5 Blocked shots 0

0 Goalkeeper saves 1

5 Corners 2

2 Offside 1

8 Free kicks against 9

2 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Man City 1. · Chelsea 5. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Man City	28	24	3	1	+62	75
2	Liverpool	29	17	9	3	+35	60
3	Man United	28	18	5	5	+33	59
4	Tottenham	29	17	7	5	+31	58
5	Chelsea	28	16	5	7	+25	53
6	Arsenal	29	13	6	10	+11	45
7	Burnley	29	10	10	9	-2	40
8	Leicester	29	9	10	10	-1	37
9	Watford	29	10	6	13	-8	36
10	Brighton	29	8	10	11	-10	34
11	Everton	29	9	7	13	-16	34
12	Bournemouth	29	8	9	12	-10	33
13	Swansea	29	8	6	15	-17	30
14	West Ham	29	7	9	13	-18	30
15	Huddersfield	29	8	6	15	-25	30
16	Newcastle	29	7	8	14	-13	29
17	Southampton	29	5	13	11	-12	28
18	Crystal Palace	28	6	9	13	-18	27
19	Stoke	29	6	9	14	-26	27
20	West Brom	29	3	11	15	-21	20

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Man City	14	13	1	0	+40	40
2	Man United	14	11	2	1	+25	35
3	Tottenham	15	10	4	1	+22	34
4	Liverpool	15	9	6	0	+23	33
5	Arsenal	14	10	2	2	+19	32
6	Chelsea	14	9	2	3	+14	29
7	Everton	14	8	2	4	+5	26
8	Brighton	15	6	6	3	+0	24
9	Leicester	15	6	5	4	+4	23
10	Burnley	15	6	4	5	+0	22
11	Watford	15	6	4	5	-4	22
12	Swansea	15	6	2	7	-4	20
13	Bournemouth	14	5	4	5	-1	19
14	West Ham	13	5	4	4	-1	19
15	Stoke	14	5	4	5	-5	19
16	Huddersfield	14	5	4	5	-5	19
17	Crystal Palace	14	4	5	5	-4	17
18	Newcastle	14	4	4	6	-3	16
19	Southampton	16	3	7	6	-5	16
20	West Brom	14	2	7	5	-5	13

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Man City	14	11	2	1	+22	35
2	Liverpool	14	8	3	3	+12	27
3	Chelsea	14	7	3	4	+11	24
4	Tottenham	14	7	3	4	+9	24
5	Man United	14	7	3	4	+8	24
6	Burnley	14	4	6	4	-2	18
7	Watford	14	4	2	8	-4	14
8	Leicester	14	3	5	6	-5	14
9	Bournemouth	15	3	5	7	-9	14
10	Arsenal	15	3	4	8	-8	13
11	Newcastle	15	3	4	8	-10	13
12	Southampton	13	2	6	5	-7	12
13	West Ham	16	2	5	9	-17	11
14	Huddersfield	15	3	2	10	-20	11
15	Brighton	14	2	4	8	-10	10
16	Swansea	14	2	4	8	-13	10
17	Crystal Palace	14	2	4	8	-14	10
18	Stoke	15	1	5	9	-21	8
19	Everton	15	1	5	9	-21	8
20	West Brom	15	1	4	10	-16	7

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.