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Premier League

Referee: Kevin Friend

Brighton

T T U S U

0–1

Full-time

Liverpool

S S S S T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Brighton Liverpool

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 50%

17%

83%

Points per game

0,8

2,5

Over 2.5 Ø 58%

33%

83%

Both score Ø 50%

50%

Average goals

2,2

3,8

Scored

0,8

3,2

Conceded

1,3

0,7

Goal diff per game

-0,5

+2,5

This season — Premier League · 21/21 matches

Win Ø 57%

33%

81%

Points per game

1,2

2,6

Over 2.5 Ø 53%

48%

57%

Both score Ø 50%

57%

43%

Average goals

2,5

2,8

Scored

1,1

2,3

Conceded

1,4

0,5

Goal diff per game

-0,2

+1,9

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

29% Possession 71%

7 Shots 10

0 Shots on target 3

2 Blocked shots 2

2 Goalkeeper saves 0

2 Corners 7

5 Offside 0

15 Free kicks against 5

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Brighton 13. · Liverpool 1. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Liverpool	21	17	3	1	+39	54
2	Man City	21	16	2	3	+39	50
3	Tottenham	21	16	0	5	+25	48
4	Chelsea	21	13	5	3	+22	44
5	Arsenal	22	12	5	5	+14	41
6	Man United	21	11	5	5	+11	38
7	Leicester	21	9	4	8	+2	31
8	West Ham	22	9	4	9	-2	31
9	Watford	21	8	5	8	-1	29
10	Wolves	21	8	5	8	-2	29
11	Everton	21	7	6	8	+0	27
12	Bournemouth	21	8	3	10	-9	27
13	Brighton	21	7	5	9	-5	26
14	Crystal Palace	21	6	4	11	-7	22
15	Newcastle	21	4	6	11	-14	18
16	Burnley	21	5	3	13	-21	18
17	Cardiff	21	5	3	13	-22	18
18	Southampton	21	3	7	11	-17	16
19	Fulham	21	3	5	13	-28	14
20	Huddersfield	21	2	4	15	-24	10

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Man City	11	10	0	1	+27	30
2	Liverpool	10	9	1	0	+24	28
3	Arsenal	11	8	2	1	+14	26
4	Chelsea	11	6	4	1	+11	22
5	Man United	10	6	3	1	+8	21
6	Tottenham	9	6	0	3	+9	18
7	Brighton	10	5	3	2	+4	18
8	Bournemouth	11	5	3	3	+2	18
9	Everton	11	5	3	3	+2	18
10	West Ham	12	5	2	5	-1	17
11	Watford	11	5	1	5	-2	16
12	Leicester	10	4	2	4	+2	14
13	Wolves	11	4	2	5	-3	14
14	Cardiff	11	4	1	6	-10	13
15	Fulham	10	3	3	4	-7	12
16	Burnley	10	3	1	6	-8	10
17	Crystal Palace	10	2	3	5	-4	9
18	Southampton	10	1	5	4	-6	8
19	Newcastle	11	2	1	8	-10	7
20	Huddersfield	11	1	2	8	-11	5

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Tottenham	12	10	0	2	+16	30
2	Liverpool	11	8	2	1	+15	26
3	Chelsea	10	7	1	2	+11	22
4	Man City	10	6	2	2	+12	20
5	Man United	11	5	2	4	+3	17
6	Leicester	11	5	2	4	+0	17
7	Wolves	10	4	3	3	+1	15
8	Arsenal	11	4	3	4	+0	15
9	West Ham	10	4	2	4	-1	14
10	Watford	10	3	4	3	+1	13
11	Crystal Palace	11	4	1	6	-3	13
12	Newcastle	10	2	5	3	-4	11
13	Everton	10	2	3	5	-2	9
14	Bournemouth	10	3	0	7	-11	9
15	Brighton	11	2	2	7	-9	8
16	Southampton	11	2	2	7	-11	8
17	Burnley	11	2	2	7	-13	8
18	Cardiff	10	1	2	7	-12	5
19	Huddersfield	10	1	2	7	-13	5
20	Fulham	11	0	2	9	-21	2

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.