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Ligue 1
Referee: F Batta
Toulouse
U T S U T
1–0
Full-time
Nantes
T S U T T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Toulouse Nantes
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 25%
17%
33%
Points per game
0,8
1,2
Over 2.5 Ø 25%
33%
17%
Both score Ø 42%
67%
17%
Average goals
2,5
1,5
Scored
0,8
0,7
Conceded
1,7
0,8
Goal diff per game
-0,8
-0,2
This season — Ligue 1 · 30/29 matches
Win Ø 26%
23%
28%
Points per game
1,1
1,1
Over 2.5 Ø 44%
47%
41%
Both score Ø 53%
60%
45%
Average goals
2,4
2,4
Scored
0,9
1,1
Conceded
1,5
1,3
Goal diff per game
-0,5
-0,2
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

52% Possession 48%
14 Shots 19
5 Shots on target 1
2 Blocked shots 7
1 Goalkeeper saves 4
4 Corners 5
1 Offside 2
19 Free kicks against 11
3 Yellow cards 1
0 Red cards 1
The table before the match Toulouse 14. · Nantes 15.
# Team K V U T +/− P
1 Paris SG 29 26 2 1 +71 80
2 Lille 30 18 6 6 +22 60
3 Lyon 31 16 8 7 +14 56
4 St Etienne 31 14 8 9 +8 50
5 Marseille 31 14 6 11 +5 48
6 Reims 30 11 13 6 +0 46
7 Montpellier 30 11 12 7 +8 45
8 Nice 30 12 8 10 -7 44
9 Strasbourg 30 10 12 8 +14 42
10 Rennes 30 11 9 10 +2 42
11 Nimes 30 11 7 12 -1 40
12 Angers 31 8 14 9 +0 38
13 Bordeaux 31 9 11 11 -1 38
14 Toulouse 30 7 11 12 -16 32
15 Nantes 29 8 7 14 -5 31
16 Monaco 31 7 10 14 -15 31
17 Amiens 31 8 7 16 -19 31
18 Dijon 31 6 6 19 -24 24
19 Caen 31 4 11 16 -22 23
20 Guingamp 31 5 8 18 -34 23

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Match report

Toulouse Nantes
17′
🟥 Andrei Girotto
Christopher Jullien 🟨
20′
24′
🟨 Edgar Ié
Gen Shoji 🟨
34′
Kelvin Amian 🟨
40′
Half-time 0–0
46′
🔁 S. Moutoussamy
↦ Boschilia
1–0 Issiaga Sylla
55′
66′
🔁 A. Limbombe
↦ E. Kwateng
A. Leya 🔁
↦ J. Durmaz
68′
Y. Cahuzac 🔁
↦ K. Sidibé
77′
85′
🔁 R. Kolo
↦ A. Waris
J. Bostock 🔁
↦ Manu García
87′
Full-time 1–0

Line-ups

Toulouse

4-2-3-1
30 B. Reynet G
3 G. Shōji D
6 C. Jullien D
12 Issiaga Sylla D
2 K. Amian D
21 J. Durmaz M
22 Manu García M
17 I. Sangaré M
26 K. Sidibé M
7 M. Gradel M
9 Y. Sanogo F
Bench (7)
10 A. Leya
4 Y. Cahuzac
15 J. Bostock
24 N. Mubele
29 F. Moubandje
16 M. Vidal
5 S. Moreira

Coach: A. Casanova

Nantes

3-1-4-2
30 C. Tătărușanu G
4 N. Pallois D
5 Edgar Ié D
3 Diego Carlos D
25 E. Kwateng D
14 C. Traoré D
20 Andrei Girotto M
19 A. Touré M
12 Boschilia F
28 V. Rongier M
10 A. Waris F
Bench (7)
18 S. Moutoussamy
22 A. Limbombe
15 R. Kolo
6 Lucas Lima
2 Fábio
17 Lucas Evangelista
1 M. Dupé

Coach: V. Halilhodžić

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

Over/under goals
U1,5 ✓
U2,5 ✓
U3,5 ✓
Both teams to score
BLS ja
BLS nei ✓

Referee

F Batta · 132 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
3,4 / match
Below average
⚽ Free kicks
27,3 / match
Above average

🟥 Red cards: 0,23 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.