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Ligue 1

Referee: R Buquet

Nice

T S T U S

1–0

Full-time

Montpellier

T S U T S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Nice Montpellier

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 33%

33%

Points per game

1,2

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

17%

83%

Both score Ø 50%

17%

83%

Average goals

1,5

4,3

Scored

0,5

1,8

Conceded

1,0

2,5

Goal diff per game

-0,5

-0,7

This season — Ligue 1 · 30/30 matches

Win Ø 39%

40%

37%

Points per game

1,5

Over 2.5 Ø 34%

20%

47%

Both score Ø 40%

27%

53%

Average goals

1,7

2,5

Scored

0,7

1,4

Conceded

1,0

1,1

Goal diff per game

-0,2

+0,3

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

50% Possession 50%

14 Shots 16

5 Shots on target 4

4 Blocked shots 5

4 Goalkeeper saves 5

6 Corners 3

1 Offside 2

11 Free kicks against 14

1 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Nice 8. · Montpellier 7. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Paris SG	29	26	2	1	+71	80
2	Lille	31	18	7	6	+22	61
3	Lyon	31	16	8	7	+14	56
4	St Etienne	31	14	8	9	+8	50
5	Marseille	31	14	6	11	+5	48
6	Reims	31	11	14	6	+0	47
7	Montpellier	30	11	12	7	+8	45
8	Nice	30	12	8	10	-7	44
9	Strasbourg	30	10	12	8	+14	42
10	Rennes	30	11	9	10	+2	42
11	Nimes	30	11	7	12	-1	40
12	Angers	31	8	14	9	+0	38
13	Bordeaux	31	9	11	11	-1	38
14	Toulouse	31	8	11	12	-15	35
15	Nantes	30	8	7	15	-6	31
16	Monaco	31	7	10	14	-15	31
17	Amiens	31	8	7	16	-19	31
18	Dijon	31	6	6	19	-24	24
19	Caen	31	4	11	16	-22	23
20	Guingamp	31	5	8	18	-34	23

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Paris SG	15	15	0	0	+47	45
2	Lyon	16	10	3	3	+14	33
3	St Etienne	15	10	2	3	+13	32
4	Marseille	15	9	4	2	+16	31
5	Lille	15	9	4	2	+16	31
6	Reims	16	7	7	2	+6	28
7	Bordeaux	16	7	6	3	+6	27
8	Rennes	15	7	4	4	+7	25
9	Strasbourg	15	6	6	3	+10	24
10	Montpellier	15	6	6	3	+9	24
11	Nice	14	7	3	4	+0	24
12	Nimes	15	6	5	4	+7	23
13	Angers	16	5	7	4	+3	22
14	Amiens	16	6	3	7	-3	21
15	Nantes	14	5	4	5	+6	19
16	Toulouse	16	4	7	5	-3	19
17	Guingamp	16	3	5	8	-9	14
18	Monaco	16	3	5	8	-11	14
19	Dijon	15	3	3	9	-14	12
20	Caen	15	2	5	8	-11	11

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Paris SG	14	11	2	1	+24	35
2	Lille	16	9	3	4	+6	30
3	Lyon	15	6	5	4	+0	23
4	Montpellier	15	5	6	4	-1	21
5	Nice	16	5	5	6	-7	20
6	Reims	15	4	7	4	-6	19
7	Strasbourg	15	4	6	5	+4	18
8	St Etienne	16	4	6	6	-5	18
9	Monaco	15	4	5	6	-4	17
10	Rennes	15	4	5	6	-5	17
11	Nimes	15	5	2	8	-8	17
12	Marseille	16	5	2	9	-11	17
13	Angers	15	3	7	5	-3	16
14	Toulouse	15	4	4	7	-12	16
15	Dijon	16	3	3	10	-10	12
16	Caen	16	2	6	8	-11	12
17	Nantes	16	3	3	10	-12	12
18	Bordeaux	15	2	5	8	-7	11
19	Amiens	15	2	4	9	-16	10
20	Guingamp	15	2	3	10	-25	9

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.