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Championship

Referee: Mark Heywood

Birmingham

S U U S S

0–1

Full-time

Nott'm Forest

S U U T S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Birmingham Nott'm Forest

Last 6 — all competitions · 5/6 matches

Win Ø 47%

60%

33%

Points per game

2,2

1,3

Over 2.5 Ø 55%

60%

50%

Both score Ø 74%

80%

67%

Average goals

3,4

2,0

Scored

2,2

1,0

Conceded

1,2

1,0

Goal diff per game

+1,0

+0,0

This season — Championship · 5/6 matches

Win Ø 47%

60%

33%

Points per game

2,2

1,3

Over 2.5 Ø 55%

60%

50%

Both score Ø 74%

80%

67%

Average goals

3,4

2,0

Scored

2,2

1,0

Conceded

1,2

1,0

Goal diff per game

+1,0

+0,0

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

51% Possession 49%

6 Shots 13

1 Shots on target 3

1 Blocked shots 4

2 Goalkeeper saves 1

3 Corners 6

2 Offside 3

0 Free kicks against 0

4 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Birmingham 4. · Nott'm Forest 13. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Brighton	6	5	1	0	+5	16
2	Cardiff	6	3	3	0	+5	12
3	Middlesbrough	6	3	2	1	+6	11
4	Birmingham	5	3	2	0	+5	11
5	Burnley	6	3	2	1	+2	11
6	Hull	6	3	1	2	+3	10
7	QPR	6	3	1	2	+1	10
8	Ipswich	6	3	1	2	-1	10
9	Reading	6	2	3	1	+5	9
10	Charlton	6	2	3	1	+2	9
11	Fulham	6	2	2	2	+1	8
12	Leeds	6	1	5	0	+1	8
13	Nott'm Forest	6	2	2	2	+0	8
14	Derby	6	1	4	1	+0	7
15	Milton Keynes Dons	6	2	1	3	-1	7
16	Wolves	6	2	1	3	-2	7
17	Bolton	6	1	3	2	-3	6
18	Brentford	5	1	2	2	-1	5
19	Sheffield Weds	6	1	2	3	-3	5
20	Preston	6	1	2	3	-3	5
21	Bristol City	6	1	1	4	-6	4
22	Blackburn	6	0	3	3	-3	3
23	Huddersfield	6	0	3	3	-5	3
24	Rotherham	6	0	2	4	-8	2

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Hull	3	3	0	0	+5	9
2	Brighton	3	3	0	0	+3	9
3	Cardiff	3	2	1	0	+4	7
4	Birmingham	3	2	1	0	+3	7
5	Burnley	3	2	1	0	+3	7
6	Charlton	3	2	1	0	+3	7
7	Middlesbrough	3	2	0	1	+4	6
8	Ipswich	3	2	0	1	+2	6
9	Reading	3	1	2	0	+4	5
10	Bolton	3	1	2	0	+1	5
11	QPR	3	1	1	1	+1	4
12	Wolves	3	1	1	1	+0	4
13	Sheffield Weds	3	1	1	1	+0	4
14	Fulham	3	1	1	1	+0	4
15	Nott'm Forest	3	1	1	1	+0	4
16	Leeds	3	0	3	0	+0	3
17	Milton Keynes Dons	3	1	0	2	-2	3
18	Derby	3	0	2	1	-1	2
19	Blackburn	3	0	2	1	-1	2
20	Huddersfield	3	0	2	1	-1	2
21	Brentford	2	0	1	1	-2	1
22	Preston	3	0	1	2	-2	1
23	Bristol City	3	0	1	2	-3	1
24	Rotherham	3	0	1	2	-5	1

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Brighton	3	2	1	0	+2	7
2	QPR	3	2	0	1	+0	6
3	Middlesbrough	3	1	2	0	+2	5
4	Cardiff	3	1	2	0	+1	5
5	Leeds	3	1	2	0	+1	5
6	Derby	3	1	2	0	+1	5
7	Birmingham	2	1	1	0	+2	4
8	Fulham	3	1	1	1	+1	4
9	Reading	3	1	1	1	+1	4
10	Brentford	3	1	1	1	+1	4
11	Milton Keynes Dons	3	1	1	1	+1	4
12	Nott'm Forest	3	1	1	1	+0	4
13	Burnley	3	1	1	1	-1	4
14	Preston	3	1	1	1	-1	4
15	Ipswich	3	1	1	1	-3	4
16	Wolves	3	1	0	2	-2	3
17	Bristol City	3	1	0	2	-3	3
18	Charlton	3	0	2	1	-1	2
19	Blackburn	3	0	1	2	-2	1
20	Hull	3	0	1	2	-2	1
21	Rotherham	3	0	1	2	-3	1
22	Sheffield Weds	3	0	1	2	-3	1
23	Huddersfield	3	0	1	2	-4	1
24	Bolton	3	0	1	2	-4	1

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.