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Championship

Referee: Andy Davies

Reading

U U U S S

0–1

Full-time

Derby

U U U T S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Reading Derby

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 25%

33%

17%

Points per game

1,5

1,2

Over 2.5 Ø 42%

50%

33%

Both score Ø 75%

67%

83%

Average goals

2,5

2,0

Scored

1,7

1,0

Conceded

0,8

1,0

Goal diff per game

+0,8

+0,0

This season — Championship · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 25%

33%

17%

Points per game

1,5

1,2

Over 2.5 Ø 42%

50%

33%

Both score Ø 75%

67%

83%

Average goals

2,5

2,0

Scored

1,7

1,0

Conceded

0,8

1,0

Goal diff per game

+0,8

+0,0

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

46% Possession 54%

11 Shots 10

3 Shots on target 2

3 Blocked shots 3

1 Goalkeeper saves 3

7 Corners 5

2 Offside 3

0 Free kicks against 0

2 Yellow cards 2

1 Red cards 0

The table before the match Reading 10. · Derby 14. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Brighton	7	6	1	0	+6	19
2	Middlesbrough	7	4	2	1	+8	14
3	Burnley	7	4	2	1	+3	14
4	Hull	7	4	1	2	+5	13
5	Ipswich	7	4	1	2	+0	13
6	Cardiff	7	3	3	1	+3	12
7	Birmingham	6	3	2	1	+4	11
8	Nott'm Forest	7	3	2	2	+1	11
9	QPR	6	3	1	2	+1	10
10	Reading	6	2	3	1	+5	9
11	Charlton	7	2	3	2	+1	9
12	Fulham	6	2	2	2	+1	8
13	Leeds	7	1	5	1	+0	8
14	Derby	6	1	4	1	+0	7
15	Wolves	6	2	1	3	-2	7
16	Milton Keynes Dons	7	2	1	4	-2	7
17	Preston	7	1	3	3	-3	6
18	Bolton	6	1	3	2	-3	6
19	Huddersfield	7	1	3	3	-4	6
20	Brentford	6	1	2	3	-3	5
21	Sheffield Weds	6	1	2	3	-3	5
22	Bristol City	7	1	2	4	-6	5
23	Blackburn	6	0	3	3	-3	3
24	Rotherham	7	0	2	5	-9	2

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Brighton	4	4	0	0	+4	12
2	Burnley	4	3	1	0	+4	10
3	Middlesbrough	4	3	0	1	+6	9
4	Hull	3	3	0	0	+5	9
5	Birmingham	4	2	1	1	+2	7
6	Charlton	4	2	1	1	+2	7
7	Cardiff	4	2	1	1	+2	7
8	Ipswich	3	2	0	1	+2	6
9	Reading	3	1	2	0	+4	5
10	Bolton	3	1	2	0	+1	5
11	QPR	3	1	1	1	+1	4
12	Wolves	3	1	1	1	+0	4
13	Sheffield Weds	3	1	1	1	+0	4
14	Fulham	3	1	1	1	+0	4
15	Nott'm Forest	3	1	1	1	+0	4
16	Leeds	4	0	3	1	-1	3
17	Milton Keynes Dons	3	1	0	2	-2	3
18	Derby	3	0	2	1	-1	2
19	Blackburn	3	0	2	1	-1	2
20	Huddersfield	3	0	2	1	-1	2
21	Preston	4	0	2	2	-2	2
22	Brentford	2	0	1	1	-2	1
23	Bristol City	3	0	1	2	-3	1
24	Rotherham	3	0	1	2	-5	1

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Brighton	3	2	1	0	+2	7
2	Nott'm Forest	4	2	1	1	+1	7
3	Ipswich	4	2	1	1	-2	7
4	QPR	3	2	0	1	+0	6
5	Middlesbrough	3	1	2	0	+2	5
6	Cardiff	3	1	2	0	+1	5
7	Leeds	3	1	2	0	+1	5
8	Derby	3	1	2	0	+1	5
9	Birmingham	2	1	1	0	+2	4
10	Fulham	3	1	1	1	+1	4
11	Reading	3	1	1	1	+1	4
12	Milton Keynes Dons	4	1	1	2	+0	4
13	Hull	4	1	1	2	+0	4
14	Brentford	4	1	1	2	-1	4
15	Burnley	3	1	1	1	-1	4
16	Preston	3	1	1	1	-1	4
17	Bristol City	4	1	1	2	-3	4
18	Huddersfield	4	1	1	2	-3	4
19	Wolves	3	1	0	2	-2	3
20	Charlton	3	0	2	1	-1	2
21	Blackburn	3	0	1	2	-2	1
22	Sheffield Weds	3	0	1	2	-3	1
23	Rotherham	4	0	1	3	-4	1
24	Bolton	3	0	1	2	-4	1

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.