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Championship

Referee: Robert Atkin

Milton Keynes Dons

S T S U

0–2

Full-time

Birmingham

S U U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Milton Keynes Dons Birmingham

Last 6 — all competitions · 4/3 matches

Win Ø 42%

50%

33%

Points per game

1,8

1,7

Over 2.5 Ø 46%

25%

67%

Both score Ø 63%

25%

100%

Average goals

1,8

3,0

Scored

1,3

1,7

Conceded

0,5

1,3

Goal diff per game

+0,8

+0,3

This season — Championship · 4/3 matches

Win Ø 42%

50%

33%

Points per game

1,8

1,7

Over 2.5 Ø 46%

25%

67%

Both score Ø 63%

25%

100%

Average goals

1,8

3,0

Scored

1,3

1,7

Conceded

0,5

1,3

Goal diff per game

+0,8

+0,3

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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The table before the match Milton Keynes Dons 4. · Birmingham 10. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Ipswich	4	3	1	0	+4	10
2	Brighton	4	3	1	0	+3	10
3	Charlton	4	2	2	0	+3	8
4	Milton Keynes Dons	4	2	1	1	+3	7
5	Hull	4	2	1	1	+2	7
6	QPR	4	2	1	1	+1	7
7	Leeds	5	1	4	0	+1	7
8	Cardiff	4	1	3	0	+2	6
9	Middlesbrough	4	1	2	1	+2	5
10	Birmingham	3	1	2	0	+1	5
11	Sheffield Weds	4	1	2	1	+1	5
12	Nott'm Forest	4	1	2	1	+0	5
13	Preston	4	1	2	1	+0	5
14	Burnley	4	1	2	1	-1	5
15	Brentford	3	1	1	1	+1	4
16	Derby	5	0	4	1	-1	4
17	Wolves	4	1	1	2	-2	4
18	Bristol City	4	1	1	2	-3	4
19	Reading	4	0	3	1	-1	3
20	Huddersfield	4	0	3	1	-2	3
21	Blackburn	5	0	3	2	-2	3
22	Bolton	5	0	3	2	-4	3
23	Fulham	4	0	2	2	-2	2
24	Rotherham	4	0	1	3	-6	1

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Hull	2	2	0	0	+3	6
2	Charlton	2	2	0	0	+3	6
3	Ipswich	2	2	0	0	+3	6
4	Brighton	2	2	0	0	+2	6
5	QPR	2	1	1	0	+2	4
6	Cardiff	2	1	1	0	+2	4
7	Sheffield Weds	2	1	1	0	+2	4
8	Birmingham	2	1	1	0	+1	4
9	Burnley	2	1	1	0	+1	4
10	Nott'm Forest	2	1	1	0	+1	4
11	Middlesbrough	2	1	0	1	+2	3
12	Milton Keynes Dons	2	1	0	1	+0	3
13	Leeds	2	0	2	0	+0	2
14	Huddersfield	2	0	2	0	+0	2
15	Bolton	2	0	2	0	+0	2
16	Reading	2	0	2	0	+0	2
17	Derby	3	0	2	1	-1	2
18	Blackburn	3	0	2	1	-1	2
19	Brentford	1	0	1	0	+0	1
20	Wolves	2	0	1	1	-1	1
21	Fulham	2	0	1	1	-1	1
22	Preston	2	0	1	1	-1	1
23	Bristol City	2	0	1	1	-2	1
24	Rotherham	2	0	1	1	-3	1

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Leeds	3	1	2	0	+1	5
2	Milton Keynes Dons	2	1	1	0	+3	4
3	Ipswich	2	1	1	0	+1	4
4	Brighton	2	1	1	0	+1	4
5	Preston	2	1	1	0	+1	4
6	Brentford	2	1	0	1	+1	3
7	QPR	2	1	0	1	-1	3
8	Wolves	2	1	0	1	-1	3
9	Bristol City	2	1	0	1	-1	3
10	Cardiff	2	0	2	0	+0	2
11	Derby	2	0	2	0	+0	2
12	Middlesbrough	2	0	2	0	+0	2
13	Charlton	2	0	2	0	+0	2
14	Birmingham	1	0	1	0	+0	1
15	Fulham	2	0	1	1	-1	1
16	Reading	2	0	1	1	-1	1
17	Sheffield Weds	2	0	1	1	-1	1
18	Hull	2	0	1	1	-1	1
19	Nott'm Forest	2	0	1	1	-1	1
20	Blackburn	2	0	1	1	-1	1
21	Burnley	2	0	1	1	-2	1
22	Huddersfield	2	0	1	1	-2	1
23	Bolton	3	0	1	2	-4	1
24	Rotherham	2	0	0	2	-3	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.