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Championship

Referee: David Coote

Derby

S S S U T

1–1

Full-time

Reading

T S T T S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Derby Reading

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 42%

50%

33%

Points per game

1,8

1,0

Over 2.5 Ø 42%

50%

33%

Both score Ø 33%

33%

Average goals

2,8

1,7

Scored

1,8

0,7

Conceded

1,0

Goal diff per game

+0,8

-0,3

This season — Championship · 24/25 matches

Win Ø 43%

50%

36%

Points per game

1,9

1,3

Over 2.5 Ø 39%

38%

40%

Both score Ø 47%

42%

52%

Average goals

2,2

2,3

Scored

1,5

1,2

Conceded

0,7

1,1

Goal diff per game

+0,8

+0,1

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–1

51% Possession 49%

8 Shots 14

2 Shots on target 5

1 Blocked shots 4

4 Goalkeeper saves 1

4 Corners 7

0 Free kicks against 0

3 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Derby 3. · Reading 12. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Middlesbrough	24	16	4	4	+24	52
2	Hull	24	14	5	5	+20	47
3	Derby	24	12	9	3	+18	45
4	Brighton	24	11	10	3	+6	43
5	Burnley	25	11	9	5	+11	42
6	Ipswich	25	11	8	6	+4	41
7	Birmingham	25	11	6	8	+3	39
8	Sheffield Weds	24	10	8	6	+8	38
9	Cardiff	25	9	10	6	+4	37
10	Brentford	25	10	6	9	+2	36
11	Wolves	25	9	7	9	+0	34
12	Reading	25	9	6	10	+2	33
13	Leeds	25	7	11	7	-2	32
14	Nott'm Forest	25	7	10	8	+1	31
15	Preston	25	7	10	8	-1	31
16	QPR	25	7	9	9	-3	30
17	Blackburn	24	6	10	8	+1	28
18	Huddersfield	25	7	7	11	-6	28
19	Fulham	25	6	9	10	-3	27
20	Milton Keynes Dons	25	6	5	14	-12	23
21	Rotherham	25	6	3	16	-14	21
22	Bristol City	25	4	9	12	-22	21
23	Charlton	25	4	8	13	-21	20
24	Bolton	25	2	11	12	-20	17

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Middlesbrough	13	10	2	1	+18	32
2	Hull	11	9	2	0	+18	29
3	Burnley	13	8	3	2	+14	27
4	Cardiff	13	7	5	1	+8	26
5	Brighton	13	8	2	3	+3	26
6	Derby	12	7	4	1	+15	25
7	Sheffield Weds	11	7	3	1	+12	24
8	Reading	13	6	4	3	+7	22
9	Brentford	12	6	2	4	+1	20
10	Birmingham	13	6	2	5	-1	20
11	QPR	13	4	7	2	+5	19
12	Nott'm Forest	12	5	4	3	+5	19
13	Preston	13	4	6	3	+1	18
14	Ipswich	12	4	5	3	+2	17
15	Fulham	13	4	4	5	+1	16
16	Milton Keynes Dons	12	5	1	6	-2	16
17	Blackburn	11	3	6	2	+4	15
18	Huddersfield	12	4	3	5	+1	15
19	Rotherham	12	4	2	6	-1	14
20	Wolves	12	3	5	4	-1	14
21	Bolton	13	2	8	3	-2	14
22	Leeds	13	3	5	5	-4	14
23	Charlton	13	3	5	5	-7	14
24	Bristol City	12	2	5	5	-7	11

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Ipswich	13	7	3	3	+2	24
2	Middlesbrough	11	6	2	3	+6	20
3	Derby	12	5	5	2	+3	20
4	Wolves	13	6	2	5	+1	20
5	Birmingham	12	5	4	3	+4	19
6	Leeds	12	4	6	2	+2	18
7	Hull	13	5	3	5	+2	18
8	Brighton	11	3	8	0	+3	17
9	Brentford	13	4	4	5	+1	16
10	Burnley	12	3	6	3	-3	15
11	Sheffield Weds	13	3	5	5	-4	14
12	Preston	12	3	4	5	-2	13
13	Blackburn	13	3	4	6	-3	13
14	Huddersfield	13	3	4	6	-7	13
15	Nott'm Forest	13	2	6	5	-4	12
16	Fulham	12	2	5	5	-4	11
17	Cardiff	12	2	5	5	-4	11
18	Reading	12	3	2	7	-5	11
19	QPR	12	3	2	7	-8	11
20	Bristol City	13	2	4	7	-15	10
21	Milton Keynes Dons	13	1	4	8	-10	7
22	Rotherham	13	2	1	10	-13	7
23	Charlton	12	1	3	8	-14	6
24	Bolton	12	0	3	9	-18	3

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.