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Championship
Referee: Scott Duncan
Derby
S U U S S
2–0
Full-time
Fulham
U T U T U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Derby Fulham
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 25%
50%
0%
Points per game
1,8
0,7
Over 2.5 Ø 50%
33%
67%
Both score Ø 50%
17%
83%
Average goals
2,0
3,0
Scored
1,5
1,2
Conceded
0,5
1,8
Goal diff per game
+1,0
-0,7
This season — Championship · 21/22 matches
Win Ø 38%
52%
23%
Points per game
2,0
1,1
Over 2.5 Ø 56%
38%
73%
Both score Ø 63%
43%
82%
Average goals
2,1
3,4
Scored
1,5
1,6
Conceded
0,6
1,8
Goal diff per game
+0,9
-0,1
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

54% Possession 46%
19 Shots 11
1 Shots on target 4
9 Blocked shots 2
4 Goalkeeper saves 0
4 Corners 4
4 Offside 1
0 Free kicks against 0
1 Yellow cards 1
0 Red cards 0
The table before the match Derby 3. · Fulham 18.
# Team K V U T +/− P
1 Middlesbrough 22 14 4 4 +21 46
2 Brighton 22 11 10 1 +8 43
3 Derby 21 11 8 2 +18 41
4 Hull 21 12 5 4 +17 41
5 Burnley 22 10 8 4 +10 38
6 Ipswich 22 9 7 6 +2 34
7 Cardiff 22 8 9 5 +4 33
8 Birmingham 22 9 6 7 +4 33
9 Brentford 23 9 6 8 +2 33
10 Sheffield Weds 21 8 8 5 +5 32
11 Reading 22 8 6 8 +3 30
12 QPR 22 7 8 7 -1 29
13 Leeds 22 7 8 7 -2 29
14 Blackburn 22 6 10 6 +3 28
15 Nott'm Forest 22 7 7 8 +1 28
16 Preston 22 5 10 7 -1 25
17 Wolves 22 6 7 9 -4 25
18 Fulham 22 5 9 8 -3 24
19 Huddersfield 22 5 6 11 -10 21
20 Bristol City 22 4 8 10 -17 20
21 Milton Keynes Dons 22 5 4 13 -12 19
22 Rotherham 22 5 3 14 -14 18
23 Charlton 22 4 6 12 -19 18
24 Bolton 22 1 11 10 -15 14

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Match report

Derby Fulham
22′
🟨 Richard Stearman
Richard Keogh 🟨
38′
Half-time 0–1
0–1 E. Hyndman
own goal
52′
63′
🔁 M. Smith
↦ J. OHara
71′
🔁 T. Cairney
↦ E. Hyndman
78′
🔁 L. Christensen
↦ A. Kačaniklić
A. Weimann 🔁
↦ J. Russell
80′
J. Hendrick 🔁
↦ G. Thorne
83′
1–1 J. Butterfield
C. Martin
84′
D. Bent 🔁
↦ C. Martin
87′
Full-time 1–1

Line-ups

Derby

1 L. Grant G
37 S. Warnock M
14 J. Shackell D
6 R. Keogh D
2 C. Christie D
18 J. Butterfield M
15 B. Johnson M
34 G. Thorne M
23 T. Ince M
11 J. Russell F
9 C. Martin F
Bench (7)
24 A. Weimann
8 J. Hendrick
10 D. Bent
12 C. Baird
16 A. Pearce
32 R. Shotton
35 J. Mitchell

Fulham

24 A. Lonergan G
5 R. Stearman D
3 L. Garbutt D
33 D. Burn D
13 T. Ream D
23 J. O'Hara M
11 A. Kačaniklić M
7 R. Fredericks D
28 E. Hyndman M
44 R. McCormack F
25 M. Dembélé F
Bench (7)
9 M. Smith
10 T. Cairney
21 L. Christensen
4 S. Hutchinson
12 J. Lewis
16 C. Woodrow
18 B. Pringle

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
U2,5 ✓
U3,5 ✓
Both teams to score
BLS ja
BLS nei ✓

Referee

Scott Duncan · 93 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
3,3 / match
Average
⚽ Free kicks
18,5 / match
Below average

🟥 Red cards: 0,26 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.