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Championship
Referee: Steve Martin
Aston Villa
S T S T S
2–1
Full-time
Burton Albion
U S T T T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Aston Villa Burton Albion
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 34%
50%
17%
Points per game
1,7
0,7
Over 2.5 Ø 42%
17%
67%
Both score Ø 50%
33%
67%
Average goals
1,8
2,5
Scored
1,0
0,8
Conceded
0,8
1,7
Goal diff per game
+0,2
-0,8
This season — Championship · 22/22 matches
Win Ø 28%
32%
23%
Points per game
1,4
1,0
Over 2.5 Ø 34%
27%
41%
Both score Ø 55%
55%
55%
Average goals
2,0
2,4
Scored
1,0
1,0
Conceded
1,0
1,4
Goal diff per game
+0,1
-0,3
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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–1

43% Possession 57%
6 Shots 11
3 Shots on target 5
0 Blocked shots 3
5 Goalkeeper saves 1
2 Corners 8
6 Offside 3
9 Free kicks against 8
0 Yellow cards 2
0 Red cards 0
The table before the match Aston Villa 12. · Burton Albion 21. ▾
# Team K V U T +/− P
1 Newcastle 22 16 1 5 +28 49
2 Brighton 22 14 6 2 +21 48
3 Reading 21 12 4 5 +6 40
4 Huddersfield 21 12 3 6 +1 39
5 Leeds 22 12 2 8 +4 38
6 Derby 22 10 6 6 +8 36
7 Sheffield Weds 21 10 4 7 +2 34
8 Birmingham 22 9 7 6 -2 34
9 Norwich 22 10 3 9 +3 33
10 Preston 22 9 5 8 +3 32
11 Barnsley 22 9 4 9 +3 31
12 Aston Villa 22 7 10 5 +2 31
13 Fulham 21 7 9 5 +5 30
14 Brentford 23 8 5 10 -1 29
15 Ipswich 22 7 7 8 -2 28
16 Bristol City 22 8 3 11 +1 27
17 Nott'm Forest 22 7 5 10 -4 26
18 Wolves 22 6 7 9 -2 25
19 Cardiff 23 6 6 11 -12 24
20 QPR 22 6 5 11 -11 23
21 Burton Albion 22 5 7 10 -7 22
22 Blackburn 22 5 5 12 -10 20
23 Wigan 22 4 6 12 -9 18
24 Rotherham 22 2 4 16 -27 10

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Match report

Aston Villa Burton Albion
1–0 L. Bacuna ⚽
A. Adomah
15′
31′
⚽ J. Ward 1–1
J. Brayford
Half-time 1–1
J. Grealish 🔁
↦ G. Gardner
46′
57′
🔁 C. O'Grady
↦ K. McFadzean
62′
🟨 John Mousinho
63′
🟨 Jamie Ward
69′
🔁 L. Williamson
↦ J. Ward
J. Ayew 🔁
↦ M. Jedinak
75′
2–1 R. McCormack ⚽
78′
G. Agbonlahor 🔁
↦ J. Kodjia
86′
91′
🔁 S. Beavon
↦ D. McCrory
Full-time 2–1

Line-ups

Aston Villa

4-4-2
31 M. Bunn G
21 A. Hutton D
12 J. Chester D
2 N. Baker D
23 J. Amavi D
25 M. Jedinak M
37 A. Adomah M
7 L. Bacuna M
22 G. Gardner M
44 R. McCormack F
26 J. Kodjia F
Bench (7)
40 J. Grealish
10 J. Ayew
11 G. Agbonlahor
1 P. Gollini
6 T. Elphick
14 R. Gestede
15 A. Westwood

Coach: S. Bruce

Burton Albion

3-5-2
1 J. McLaughlin G
5 K. McFadzean D
3 J. Brayford D
4 J. Mousinho D
14 D. McCrory D
11 L. Dyer M
15 T. Naylor D
36 J. Irvine M
16 M. Palmer M
10 L. Akins F
12 J. Ward M
Bench (7)
8 C. O'Grady
7 L. Williamson
9 S. Beavon
2 T. Flanagan
13 S. Bywater
22 M. Harness
25 S. Barker

Coach: N. Clough

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
–
O2,5 ✓
–
U3,5 ✓
–
Both teams to score
BLS ja ✓
–
BLS nei
–

Referee

Steve Martin · 46 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
2,5 / match
Below average
⚽ Free kicks
15,9 / match
Below average

🟥 Red cards: 0,13 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.