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Championship

Referee: Lee Probert

Burton Albion

T U S T T

1–2

Full-time

Newcastle

S T T S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Burton Albion Newcastle

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 42%

17%

67%

Points per game

0,8

2,0

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

50%

Both score Ø 42%

50%

33%

Average goals

2,0

2,5

Scored

0,7

1,8

Conceded

1,3

0,7

Goal diff per game

-0,7

+1,2

This season — Championship · 21/21 matches

Win Ø 48%

24%

71%

Points per game

1,0

2,2

Over 2.5 Ø 43%

38%

48%

Both score Ø 45%

52%

38%

Average goals

2,4

2,8

Scored

1,0

2,0

Conceded

1,3

0,8

Goal diff per game

-0,3

+1,3

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–2

57% Possession 43%

15 Shots 9

3 Shots on target 4

5 Blocked shots 2

2 Goalkeeper saves 2

7 Corners 5

0 Offside 3

5 Free kicks against 10

2 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Burton Albion 21. · Newcastle 1. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Newcastle	21	15	1	5	+27	46
2	Brighton	21	13	6	2	+20	45
3	Huddersfield	21	12	3	6	+1	39
4	Reading	20	11	4	5	+5	37
5	Derby	21	10	5	6	+8	35
6	Leeds	21	11	2	8	+3	35
7	Birmingham	21	9	7	5	-1	34
8	Norwich	22	10	3	9	+3	33
9	Sheffield Weds	20	9	4	7	+1	31
10	Fulham	20	7	8	5	+5	29
11	Preston	21	8	5	8	+2	29
12	Barnsley	21	8	4	9	+2	28
13	Aston Villa	21	6	10	5	+1	28
14	Brentford	21	8	4	9	+0	28
15	Bristol City	21	8	3	10	+2	27
16	Nott'm Forest	21	7	5	9	-2	26
17	Ipswich	21	6	7	8	-3	25
18	QPR	21	6	5	10	-10	23
19	Cardiff	21	6	5	10	-11	23
20	Wolves	21	5	7	9	-4	22
21	Burton Albion	21	5	7	9	-6	22
22	Blackburn	21	5	5	11	-9	20
23	Wigan	21	4	6	11	-8	18
24	Rotherham	21	2	4	15	-26	10

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Brighton	11	8	2	1	+16	26
2	Reading	11	7	3	1	+9	24
3	Norwich	11	7	1	3	+10	22
4	Huddersfield	9	7	1	1	+6	22
5	Newcastle	10	7	0	3	+12	21
6	Birmingham	11	6	3	2	+4	21
7	Sheffield Weds	10	7	0	3	+4	21
8	Aston Villa	10	5	5	0	+8	20
9	Leeds	11	6	2	3	+5	20
10	Bristol City	10	6	1	3	+4	19
11	Derby	11	5	3	3	+6	18
12	Nott'm Forest	10	5	3	2	+5	18
13	Brentford	10	5	2	3	+7	17
14	Preston	11	5	2	4	+5	17
15	Ipswich	11	4	5	2	+5	17
16	Burton Albion	10	5	2	3	+5	17
17	Barnsley	11	4	3	4	+0	15
18	Cardiff	11	4	2	5	-4	14
19	Fulham	10	3	4	3	+1	13
20	Blackburn	11	3	4	4	-2	13
21	QPR	11	3	3	5	-7	12
22	Rotherham	10	2	3	5	-4	9
23	Wigan	10	2	3	5	-4	9
24	Wolves	10	2	3	5	-5	9

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Newcastle	11	8	1	2	+15	25
2	Brighton	10	5	4	1	+4	19
3	Derby	10	5	2	3	+2	17
4	Huddersfield	12	5	2	5	-5	17
5	Fulham	10	4	4	2	+4	16
6	Leeds	10	5	0	5	-2	15
7	Barnsley	10	4	1	5	+2	13
8	Wolves	11	3	4	4	+1	13
9	Reading	9	4	1	4	-4	13
10	Birmingham	10	3	4	3	-5	13
11	Preston	10	3	3	4	-3	12
12	QPR	10	3	2	5	-3	11
13	Norwich	11	3	2	6	-7	11
14	Brentford	11	3	2	6	-7	11
15	Sheffield Weds	10	2	4	4	-3	10
16	Wigan	11	2	3	6	-4	9
17	Cardiff	10	2	3	5	-7	9
18	Bristol City	11	2	2	7	-2	8
19	Nott'm Forest	11	2	2	7	-7	8
20	Aston Villa	11	1	5	5	-7	8
21	Ipswich	10	2	2	6	-8	8
22	Blackburn	10	2	1	7	-7	7
23	Burton Albion	11	0	5	6	-11	5
24	Rotherham	11	0	1	10	-22	1

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.