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Championship

Referee: Graham Scott

Derby

S S S S U

1–0

Full-time

Birmingham

S T T S T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Derby Birmingham

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 67%

83%

50%

Points per game

2,7

1,5

Over 2.5 Ø 67%

50%

83%

Both score Ø 34%

17%

50%

Average goals

2,2

2,8

Scored

1,8

1,0

Conceded

0,3

1,8

Goal diff per game

+1,5

-0,8

This season — Championship · 22/22 matches

Win Ø 43%

45%

41%

Points per game

1,6

1,5

Over 2.5 Ø 39%

23%

55%

Both score Ø 41%

23%

59%

Average goals

1,7

2,5

Scored

1,0

1,2

Conceded

0,7

1,3

Goal diff per game

+0,4

-0,1

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

52% Possession 48%

14 Shots 5

2 Shots on target 1

4 Blocked shots 1

1 Goalkeeper saves 1

5 Corners 1

3 Offside 3

14 Free kicks against 16

1 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Derby 7. · Birmingham 10. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Brighton	23	15	6	2	+24	51
2	Newcastle	23	16	1	6	+27	49
3	Reading	22	13	4	5	+8	43
4	Huddersfield	22	13	3	6	+2	42
5	Leeds	23	13	2	8	+7	41
6	Sheffield Weds	22	11	4	7	+3	37
7	Derby	22	10	6	6	+8	36
8	Barnsley	23	10	4	9	+5	34
9	Aston Villa	23	8	10	5	+3	34
10	Birmingham	22	9	7	6	-2	34
11	Fulham	22	8	9	5	+7	33
12	Norwich	23	10	3	10	+1	33
13	Preston	23	9	5	9	+0	32
14	Brentford	23	8	5	10	-1	29
15	Wolves	23	7	7	9	-1	28
16	Ipswich	23	7	7	9	-4	28
17	Bristol City	23	8	3	12	+0	27
18	Nott'm Forest	23	7	5	11	-5	26
19	Cardiff	23	6	6	11	-12	24
20	QPR	23	6	5	12	-14	23
21	Burton Albion	23	5	7	11	-8	22
22	Blackburn	23	5	5	13	-12	20
23	Wigan	23	4	6	13	-10	18
24	Rotherham	23	3	4	16	-26	13

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Brighton	12	9	2	1	+19	29
2	Reading	12	8	3	1	+11	27
3	Huddersfield	10	8	1	1	+7	25
4	Sheffield Weds	11	8	0	3	+5	24
5	Aston Villa	11	6	5	0	+9	23
6	Leeds	12	7	2	3	+6	23
7	Norwich	11	7	1	3	+10	22
8	Newcastle	11	7	0	4	+11	21
9	Birmingham	12	6	3	3	+3	21
10	Bristol City	11	6	1	4	+3	19
11	Brentford	11	5	3	3	+7	18
12	Derby	11	5	3	3	+6	18
13	Nott'm Forest	11	5	3	3	+3	18
14	Barnsley	12	5	3	4	+2	18
15	Burton Albion	11	5	2	4	+4	17
16	Ipswich	12	4	5	3	+3	17
17	Preston	12	5	2	5	+2	17
18	Fulham	11	3	5	3	+1	14
19	Cardiff	12	4	2	6	-5	14
20	Blackburn	12	3	4	5	-3	13
21	Rotherham	11	3	3	5	-3	12
22	Wolves	11	3	3	5	-4	12
23	QPR	12	3	3	6	-8	12
24	Wigan	11	2	3	6	-5	9

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Newcastle	12	9	1	2	+16	28
2	Brighton	11	6	4	1	+5	22
3	Fulham	11	5	4	2	+6	19
4	Derby	11	5	3	3	+2	18
5	Leeds	11	6	0	5	+1	18
6	Huddersfield	12	5	2	5	-5	17
7	Barnsley	11	5	1	5	+3	16
8	Wolves	12	4	4	4	+3	16
9	Reading	10	5	1	4	-3	16
10	Preston	11	4	3	4	-2	15
11	Sheffield Weds	11	3	4	4	-2	13
12	Birmingham	10	3	4	3	-5	13
13	QPR	11	3	2	6	-6	11
14	Aston Villa	12	2	5	5	-6	11
15	Ipswich	11	3	2	6	-7	11
16	Brentford	12	3	2	7	-8	11
17	Norwich	12	3	2	7	-9	11
18	Cardiff	11	2	4	5	-7	10
19	Wigan	12	2	3	7	-5	9
20	Bristol City	12	2	2	8	-3	8
21	Nott'm Forest	12	2	2	8	-8	8
22	Blackburn	11	2	1	8	-9	7
23	Burton Albion	12	0	5	7	-12	5
24	Rotherham	12	0	1	11	-23	1

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.