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Championship

Referee: Tim Robinson

Derby

S S U T U

0–3

Full-time

Birmingham

S T S S U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Derby Birmingham

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 50%

50%

Points per game

1,8

Over 2.5 Ø 33%

33%

Both score Ø 42%

33%

50%

Average goals

2,5

2,0

Scored

1,7

1,0

Conceded

0,8

1,0

Goal diff per game

+0,8

+0,0

This season — Championship · 25/26 matches

Win Ø 45%

48%

42%

Points per game

1,8

1,5

Over 2.5 Ø 34%

36%

31%

Both score Ø 43%

44%

42%

Average goals

2,2

2,3

Scored

1,4

1,2

Conceded

0,7

1,1

Goal diff per game

+0,7

+0,1

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

59% Possession 41%

14 Shots 11

4 Shots on target 8

4 Blocked shots 2

5 Goalkeeper saves 4

6 Corners 3

0 Free kicks against 0

2 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Derby 4. · Birmingham 8. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Middlesbrough	25	17	4	4	+25	55
2	Hull	25	15	5	5	+22	50
3	Burnley	27	13	9	5	+18	48
4	Derby	25	12	10	3	+18	46
5	Sheffield Weds	26	12	8	6	+11	44
6	Ipswich	26	12	8	6	+5	44
7	Brighton	25	11	10	4	+4	43
8	Birmingham	26	11	7	8	+3	40
9	Cardiff	26	9	10	7	+2	37
10	Wolves	26	10	7	9	+1	37
11	Brentford	27	10	6	11	-1	36
12	Reading	26	9	7	10	+2	34
13	Preston	26	8	10	8	+0	34
14	Nott'm Forest	26	7	11	8	+1	32
15	Leeds	27	7	11	9	-5	32
16	Huddersfield	26	8	7	11	-1	31
17	QPR	26	7	10	9	-3	31
18	Blackburn	25	6	11	8	+1	29
19	Fulham	26	6	9	11	-4	27
20	Rotherham	26	7	3	16	-12	24
21	Milton Keynes Dons	26	6	5	15	-17	23
22	Bristol City	26	4	9	13	-23	21
23	Charlton	26	4	8	14	-26	20
24	Bolton	26	2	11	13	-21	17

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Hull	12	10	2	0	+20	32
2	Middlesbrough	13	10	2	1	+18	32
3	Sheffield Weds	13	9	3	1	+15	30
4	Burnley	13	8	3	2	+14	27
5	Derby	13	7	5	1	+15	26
6	Cardiff	13	7	5	1	+8	26
7	Brighton	13	8	2	3	+3	26
8	Reading	13	6	4	3	+7	22
9	Nott'm Forest	13	5	5	3	+5	20
10	Ipswich	13	5	5	3	+3	20
11	Birmingham	13	6	2	5	-1	20
12	Brentford	14	6	2	6	-2	20
13	QPR	13	4	7	2	+5	19
14	Huddersfield	13	5	3	5	+6	18
15	Preston	13	4	6	3	+1	18
16	Rotherham	13	5	2	6	+1	17
17	Wolves	13	4	5	4	+0	17
18	Blackburn	12	3	7	2	+4	16
19	Fulham	13	4	4	5	+1	16
20	Milton Keynes Dons	13	5	1	7	-7	16
21	Bolton	13	2	8	3	-2	14
22	Leeds	13	3	5	5	-4	14
23	Charlton	13	3	5	5	-7	14
24	Bristol City	13	2	5	6	-8	11

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Ipswich	13	7	3	3	+2	24
2	Middlesbrough	12	7	2	3	+7	23
3	Burnley	14	5	6	3	+4	21
4	Birmingham	13	5	5	3	+4	20
5	Derby	12	5	5	2	+3	20
6	Wolves	13	6	2	5	+1	20
7	Hull	13	5	3	5	+2	18
8	Leeds	14	4	6	4	-1	18
9	Brighton	12	3	8	1	+1	17
10	Brentford	13	4	4	5	+1	16
11	Preston	13	4	4	5	-1	16
12	Sheffield Weds	13	3	5	5	-4	14
13	Blackburn	13	3	4	6	-3	13
14	Huddersfield	13	3	4	6	-7	13
15	Nott'm Forest	13	2	6	5	-4	12
16	Reading	13	3	3	7	-5	12
17	QPR	13	3	3	7	-8	12
18	Fulham	13	2	5	6	-5	11
19	Cardiff	13	2	5	6	-6	11
20	Bristol City	13	2	4	7	-15	10
21	Milton Keynes Dons	13	1	4	8	-10	7
22	Rotherham	13	2	1	10	-13	7
23	Charlton	13	1	3	9	-19	6
24	Bolton	13	0	3	10	-19	3

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.