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Premier League

Referee: Michael Oliver

Liverpool

S T U S S

4–1

Full-time

Stoke

S S T U U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Liverpool Stoke

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 42%

50%

33%

Points per game

1,8

1,3

Over 2.5 Ø 42%

50%

33%

Both score Ø 33%

33%

Average goals

2,8

2,0

Scored

1,8

1,0

Conceded

1,0

Goal diff per game

+0,8

+0,0

This season — Premier League · 17/17 matches

Win Ø 47%

65%

29%

Points per game

2,2

1,2

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

65%

35%

Both score Ø 59%

65%

53%

Average goals

3,6

2,5

Scored

2,4

1,1

Conceded

1,2

1,4

Goal diff per game

+1,2

-0,3

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 2–1

63% Possession 37%

20 Shots 6

6 Shots on target 2

8 Blocked shots 2

1 Goalkeeper saves 2

8 Corners 2

0 Offside 2

9 Free kicks against 6

0 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Liverpool 3. · Stoke 12. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Chelsea	18	15	1	2	+27	46
2	Man City	18	12	3	3	+19	39
3	Liverpool	17	11	4	2	+21	37
4	Arsenal	18	11	4	3	+20	37
5	Tottenham	17	9	6	2	+17	33
6	Man United	18	9	6	3	+9	33
7	Everton	18	7	5	6	+2	26
8	Southampton	17	6	6	5	+1	24
9	West Brom	18	6	5	7	+1	23
10	Watford	18	6	4	8	-8	22
11	West Ham	18	6	4	8	-9	22
12	Stoke	17	5	6	6	-5	21
13	Bournemouth	18	6	3	9	-8	21
14	Burnley	18	6	2	10	-11	20
15	Middlesbrough	18	4	6	8	-4	18
16	Leicester	18	4	5	9	-8	17
17	Crystal Palace	18	4	4	10	-4	16
18	Sunderland	18	4	2	12	-15	14
19	Swansea	18	3	3	12	-20	12
20	Hull	18	3	3	12	-25	12

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Chelsea	9	8	0	1	+20	24
2	Tottenham	9	7	2	0	+14	23
3	Arsenal	9	6	2	1	+9	20
4	Burnley	10	6	1	3	+5	19
5	Man City	9	5	3	1	+8	18
6	Liverpool	7	5	2	0	+15	17
7	Man United	9	4	4	1	+7	16
8	Everton	9	4	4	1	+5	16
9	Bournemouth	9	5	1	3	+4	16
10	Leicester	9	4	3	2	+5	15
11	Southampton	8	4	3	1	+3	15
12	West Brom	9	4	2	3	+3	14
13	Watford	9	4	2	3	+1	14
14	West Ham	9	4	2	3	-5	14
15	Stoke	9	3	3	3	-2	12
16	Middlesbrough	9	3	1	5	-1	10
17	Sunderland	9	3	1	5	-4	10
18	Swansea	9	2	2	5	-6	8
19	Hull	9	2	2	5	-9	8
20	Crystal Palace	9	2	1	6	-1	7

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Chelsea	9	7	1	1	+7	22
2	Man City	9	7	0	2	+11	21
3	Liverpool	10	6	2	2	+6	20
4	Arsenal	9	5	2	2	+11	17
5	Man United	9	5	2	2	+2	17
6	Tottenham	8	2	4	2	+3	10
7	Everton	9	3	1	5	-3	10
8	Southampton	9	2	3	4	-2	9
9	West Brom	9	2	3	4	-2	9
10	Crystal Palace	9	2	3	4	-3	9
11	Stoke	8	2	3	3	-3	9
12	Middlesbrough	9	1	5	3	-3	8
13	West Ham	9	2	2	5	-4	8
14	Watford	9	2	2	5	-9	8
15	Bournemouth	9	1	2	6	-12	5
16	Sunderland	9	1	1	7	-11	4
17	Swansea	9	1	1	7	-14	4
18	Hull	9	1	1	7	-16	4
19	Leicester	9	0	2	7	-13	2
20	Burnley	8	0	1	7	-16	1

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.