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Championship

Referee: Andy Madley

Middlesbrough

T S S S U

0–1

Full-time

Aston Villa

S S S U T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Middlesbrough Aston Villa

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 59%

67%

50%

Points per game

2,2

1,7

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

67%

33%

Both score Ø 50%

67%

33%

Average goals

2,8

2,2

Scored

1,8

1,3

Conceded

1,0

0,8

Goal diff per game

+0,8

+0,5

This season — Championship · 44/43 matches

Win Ø 51%

50%

51%

Points per game

1,7

1,8

Over 2.5 Ø 51%

52%

49%

Both score Ø 47%

50%

44%

Average goals

2,5

2,6

Scored

1,5

1,6

Conceded

1,0

Goal diff per game

+0,5

+0,7

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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The table before the match Middlesbrough 6. · Aston Villa 5. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Wolves	46	30	9	7	+43	99
2	Cardiff	46	27	9	10	+30	90
3	Fulham	44	24	12	8	+32	84
4	Derby	45	21	14	10	+24	77
5	Aston Villa	43	22	10	11	+28	76
6	Middlesbrough	44	22	9	13	+23	75
7	Preston	46	19	16	11	+11	73
8	Millwall	46	19	15	12	+11	72
9	Brentford	46	18	15	13	+10	69
10	Sheffield United	46	20	9	17	+7	69
11	Bristol City	46	17	16	13	+9	67
12	Ipswich	46	17	9	20	-3	60
13	Leeds	46	17	9	20	-5	60
14	Norwich	46	15	15	16	-11	60
15	Sheffield Weds	46	14	15	17	-1	57
16	QPR	46	15	11	20	-12	56
17	Nott'm Forest	46	15	8	23	-14	53
18	Hull	46	11	16	19	+0	49
19	Birmingham	46	13	7	26	-30	46
20	Reading	46	10	14	22	-22	44
21	Bolton	46	10	13	23	-35	43
22	Barnsley	46	9	14	23	-24	41
23	Burton Albion	46	10	11	25	-43	41
24	Sunderland	46	7	16	23	-28	37

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Wolves	23	16	5	2	+29	53
2	Cardiff	23	16	4	3	+24	52
3	Fulham	22	13	7	2	+23	46
4	Aston Villa	21	13	6	2	+22	45
5	Middlesbrough	22	14	3	5	+17	45
6	Derby	23	13	5	5	+21	44
7	Millwall	23	12	7	4	+12	43
8	Sheffield United	23	12	5	6	+13	41
9	QPR	23	12	5	6	+7	41
10	Bristol City	23	11	6	6	+13	39
11	Brentford	23	9	11	3	+13	38
12	Leeds	23	10	6	7	+5	36
13	Preston	23	9	8	6	+5	35
14	Ipswich	23	9	6	8	+2	33
15	Nott'm Forest	23	10	3	10	-2	33
16	Birmingham	23	10	3	10	-3	33
17	Norwich	23	8	8	7	+0	32
18	Sheffield Weds	23	8	7	8	+6	31
19	Bolton	23	9	4	10	-8	31
20	Hull	23	7	8	8	+9	29
21	Barnsley	23	5	9	9	-7	24
22	Reading	23	5	8	10	-10	23
23	Burton Albion	23	4	5	14	-24	17
24	Sunderland	23	3	7	13	-16	16

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Wolves	23	14	4	5	+14	46
2	Fulham	22	11	5	6	+9	38
3	Preston	23	10	8	5	+6	38
4	Cardiff	23	11	5	7	+6	38
5	Derby	22	8	9	5	+3	33
6	Aston Villa	22	9	4	9	+6	31
7	Brentford	23	9	4	10	-3	31
8	Middlesbrough	22	8	6	8	+6	30
9	Millwall	23	7	8	8	-1	29
10	Bristol City	23	6	10	7	-4	28
11	Sheffield United	23	8	4	11	-6	28
12	Norwich	23	7	7	9	-11	28
13	Ipswich	23	8	3	12	-5	27
14	Sheffield Weds	23	6	8	9	-7	26
15	Leeds	23	7	3	13	-10	24
16	Burton Albion	23	6	6	11	-19	24
17	Sunderland	23	4	9	10	-12	21
18	Reading	23	5	6	12	-12	21
19	Hull	23	4	8	11	-9	20
20	Nott'm Forest	23	5	5	13	-12	20
21	Barnsley	23	4	5	14	-17	17
22	QPR	23	3	6	14	-19	15
23	Birmingham	23	3	4	16	-27	13
24	Bolton	23	1	9	13	-27	12

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.