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Championship

Referee: Lee Probert

Derby

T S S T T

1–2

Full-time

Middlesbrough

T U S T S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Derby Middlesbrough

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 33%

33%

Points per game

1,2

1,3

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

50%

Both score Ø 58%

33%

83%

Average goals

2,5

Scored

1,0

1,3

Conceded

1,5

1,2

Goal diff per game

-0,5

+0,2

This season — Championship · 40/41 matches

Win Ø 47%

45%

49%

Points per game

1,7

Over 2.5 Ø 48%

45%

51%

Both score Ø 46%

43%

49%

Average goals

2,5

Scored

1,5

Conceded

1,0

Goal diff per game

+0,5

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

56% Possession 44%

16 Shots 14

7 Shots on target 4

3 Blocked shots 2

2 Goalkeeper saves 6

12 Corners 6

13 Free kicks against 11

3 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Derby 7. · Middlesbrough 6. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Wolves	43	29	8	6	+42	95
2	Cardiff	42	25	8	9	+29	83
3	Fulham	41	23	12	6	+34	81
4	Aston Villa	40	21	9	10	+25	72
5	Millwall	44	18	15	11	+12	69
6	Middlesbrough	41	20	8	13	+20	68
7	Derby	40	18	13	9	+19	67
8	Preston	43	17	15	11	+9	66
9	Sheffield United	43	19	9	15	+8	66
10	Brentford	43	17	14	12	+11	65
11	Bristol City	43	17	14	12	+10	65
12	Ipswich	43	16	8	19	-3	56
13	Norwich	43	14	14	15	-8	56
14	Leeds	43	15	9	19	-7	54
15	QPR	43	14	11	18	-11	53
16	Sheffield Weds	43	12	14	17	-8	50
17	Nott'm Forest	42	14	7	21	-15	49
18	Hull	43	11	14	18	+2	47
19	Reading	43	10	13	20	-15	43
20	Bolton	43	9	13	21	-30	40
21	Birmingham	43	11	7	25	-31	40
22	Barnsley	42	8	14	20	-19	38
23	Burton Albion	43	8	11	24	-45	35
24	Sunderland	43	6	16	21	-29	34

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Wolves	22	16	4	2	+29	52
2	Cardiff	21	15	3	3	+23	48
3	Aston Villa	20	13	5	2	+22	44
4	Fulham	21	12	7	2	+22	43
5	Middlesbrough	21	13	3	5	+15	42
6	Sheffield United	22	12	5	5	+14	41
7	Millwall	22	11	7	4	+11	40
8	Bristol City	21	11	5	5	+14	38
9	QPR	22	11	5	6	+5	38
10	Derby	19	10	5	4	+16	35
11	Brentford	21	8	10	3	+12	34
12	Ipswich	21	9	5	7	+6	32
13	Preston	21	8	7	6	+4	31
14	Leeds	21	8	6	7	+2	30
15	Hull	22	7	8	7	+11	29
16	Norwich	22	7	8	7	-1	29
17	Nott'm Forest	21	9	2	10	-5	29
18	Bolton	21	8	4	9	-5	28
19	Birmingham	21	8	3	10	-6	27
20	Sheffield Weds	21	6	7	8	-1	25
21	Reading	22	5	8	9	-6	23
22	Barnsley	22	4	9	9	-9	21
23	Burton Albion	22	3	5	14	-26	14
24	Sunderland	21	2	7	12	-18	13

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Wolves	21	13	4	4	+13	43
2	Fulham	20	11	5	4	+12	38
3	Cardiff	21	10	5	6	+6	35
4	Preston	22	9	8	5	+5	35
5	Derby	21	8	8	5	+3	32
6	Brentford	22	9	4	9	-1	31
7	Millwall	22	7	8	7	+1	29
8	Aston Villa	20	8	4	8	+3	28
9	Bristol City	22	6	9	7	-4	27
10	Norwich	21	7	6	8	-7	27
11	Middlesbrough	20	7	5	8	+5	26
12	Sheffield United	21	7	4	10	-6	25
13	Sheffield Weds	22	6	7	9	-7	25
14	Leeds	22	7	3	12	-9	24
15	Ipswich	22	7	3	12	-9	24
16	Sunderland	22	4	9	9	-11	21
17	Burton Albion	21	5	6	10	-19	21
18	Reading	21	5	5	11	-9	20
19	Nott'm Forest	21	5	5	11	-10	20
20	Hull	21	4	6	11	-9	18
21	Barnsley	20	4	5	11	-10	17
22	QPR	21	3	6	12	-16	15
23	Birmingham	22	3	4	15	-25	13
24	Bolton	22	1	9	12	-25	12

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.