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Bundesliga
Referee: Martin Petersen
Mainz
U S T S S
1–2
Full-time
Werder Bremen
T U T U U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Mainz Werder Bremen
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 34%
50%
17%
Points per game
1,8
1,0
Over 2.5 Ø 33%
33%
33%
Both score Ø 50%
33%
67%
Average goals
2,0
2,0
Scored
1,3
0,8
Conceded
0,7
1,2
Goal diff per game
+0,7
-0,3
This season — Bundesliga · 33/33 matches
Win Ø 27%
27%
27%
Points per game
1,1
1,2
Over 2.5 Ø 42%
42%
42%
Both score Ø 50%
48%
52%
Average goals
2,6
2,2
Scored
1,1
1,1
Conceded
1,5
1,2
Goal diff per game
-0,4
-0,1
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–1

44% Possession 56%
13 Shots 15
1 Shots on target 3
4 Blocked shots 6
1 Goalkeeper saves 0
3 Corners 7
5 Offside 3
11 Free kicks against 7
0 Yellow cards 1
0 Red cards 0
The table before the match Mainz 14. · Werder Bremen 12.
# Team K V U T +/− P
1 Bayern Munich 33 27 3 3 +67 84
2 Schalke 04 33 17 9 7 +15 60
3 Dortmund 33 15 10 8 +19 55
4 Hoffenheim 33 14 10 9 +16 52
5 Leverkusen 33 14 10 9 +13 52
6 RB Leipzig 33 14 8 11 +0 50
7 Ein Frankfurt 33 14 7 12 +1 49
8 Stuttgart 33 14 6 13 -3 48
9 M'gladbach 33 13 8 12 -4 47
10 Hertha 33 10 13 10 +1 43
11 Augsburg 33 10 11 12 -1 41
12 Werder Bremen 33 9 12 12 -4 39
13 Hannover 33 10 9 14 -9 39
14 Mainz 33 9 9 15 -13 36
15 Freiburg 33 7 12 14 -26 33
16 Wolfsburg 33 5 15 13 -15 30
17 Hamburg 33 7 7 19 -25 28
18 FC Koln 33 5 7 21 -32 22

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Match report

Mainz Werder Bremen
1–0 J. Gbamin
12′
23′
F. Kainz 1–1
M. Eggestein
40′
🔁 J. Gondorf
↦ S. Langkamp
Half-time 1–1
A. Maxim 🔁
↦ N. de Jong
52′
G. Holtmann 🔁
↦ L. Öztunali
63′
67′
🔁 J. Eggestein
↦ M. Rashica
79′
T. Gebre Selassie 1–2
F. Kainz
R. Quaison 🔁
↦ G. Donati
80′
84′
🟨 Jérôme Gondorf
85′
🔁 Z. Junuzović
↦ F. Kainz
Full-time 1–2

Line-ups

Mainz

4-3-3
22 F. Müller G
18 D. Brosinski D
2 G. Donati D
16 S. Bell D
42 A. Hack D
5 N. de Jong M
32 P. De Blasis M
25 J. Gbamin M
8 L. Öztunali F
34 R. Baku M
9 Y. Muto F
Bench (7)
10 A. Maxim
38 G. Holtmann
7 R. Quaison
20 A. Ujah
21 K. Onisiwo
26 N. Bungert
37 F. Dahmen

Coach: S. Schwarz

Werder Bremen

4-3-3
1 J. Pavlenka G
15 S. Langkamp D
23 T. Gebre Selassie D
5 L. Augustinsson D
32 M. Friedl D
44 P. Bargfrede M
6 T. Delaney M
7 F. Kainz F
11 M. Rashica F
35 M. Eggestein M
10 M. Kruse F
Bench (7)
8 J. Gondorf
24 J. Eggestein
16 Z. Junuzović
18 N. Moisander
4 R. Bauer
19 Zhang Yuning
33 J. Drobný

Coach: F. Kohfeldt

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
O2,5 ✓
U3,5 ✓
Both teams to score
BLS ja ✓
BLS nei

Referee

Martin Petersen · 29 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
3,4 / match
Below average
⚽ Free kicks
24,9 / match
Above average

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.