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Championship

Referee: Andy Davies

Aston Villa

U U T U T

5–0

Full-time

Bristol City

S S U S T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Aston Villa Bristol City

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 42%

17%

67%

Points per game

1,0

2,2

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

33%

67%

Both score Ø 67%

50%

83%

Average goals

2,2

2,7

Scored

1,0

1,7

Conceded

1,2

1,0

Goal diff per game

-0,2

+0,7

This season — Championship · 22/25 matches

Win Ø 47%

41%

52%

Points per game

1,5

1,9

Over 2.5 Ø 55%

50%

60%

Both score Ø 57%

50%

64%

Average goals

2,4

2,6

Scored

1,4

1,6

Conceded

1,0

Goal diff per game

+0,3

+0,6

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 2–0

49% Possession 51%

13 Shots 5

6 Shots on target 1

4 Blocked shots 1

1 Goalkeeper saves 1

5 Corners 3

3 Offside 2

13 Free kicks against 11

0 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Aston Villa 12. · Bristol City 3. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Wolves	25	18	4	3	+27	58
2	Derby	25	14	6	5	+18	48
3	Bristol City	25	13	8	4	+14	47
4	Cardiff	26	14	5	7	+11	47
5	Leeds	26	13	4	9	+9	43
6	Sheffield United	26	13	3	10	+9	42
7	Middlesbrough	24	12	4	8	+10	40
8	Preston	26	10	10	6	+4	40
9	Brentford	25	9	10	6	+7	37
10	Ipswich	25	11	3	11	+3	36
11	Fulham	23	9	8	6	+3	35
12	Aston Villa	22	9	7	6	+7	34
13	Norwich	26	9	7	10	-5	34
14	Nott'm Forest	26	10	2	14	-9	32
15	Millwall	26	7	9	10	-1	30
16	Sheffield Weds	26	7	9	10	-4	30
17	QPR	26	7	9	10	-8	30
18	Reading	25	7	7	11	-3	28
19	Barnsley	26	6	8	12	-10	26
20	Bolton	26	6	7	13	-18	25
21	Hull	26	5	9	12	-5	24
22	Burton Albion	26	6	6	14	-23	24
23	Sunderland	26	4	10	12	-14	22
24	Birmingham	25	5	5	15	-22	20

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Wolves	12	9	2	1	+15	29
2	Cardiff	13	8	3	2	+12	27
3	Derby	13	8	2	3	+13	26
4	Sheffield United	13	8	1	4	+10	25
5	Millwall	13	7	3	3	+8	24
6	Bristol City	13	7	3	3	+7	24
7	Ipswich	13	7	2	4	+9	23
8	Middlesbrough	12	7	2	3	+6	23
9	Leeds	13	6	4	3	+8	22
10	Brentford	13	5	7	1	+7	22
11	QPR	13	6	4	3	+3	22
12	Nott'm Forest	13	7	0	6	+0	21
13	Preston	13	5	5	3	+3	20
14	Aston Villa	10	5	4	1	+6	19
15	Fulham	11	4	5	2	+1	17
16	Sheffield Weds	13	4	5	4	+0	17
17	Norwich	13	4	5	4	+0	17
18	Bolton	13	5	2	6	-3	17
19	Birmingham	13	5	2	6	-5	17
20	Hull	13	4	4	5	+7	16
21	Reading	12	3	4	5	-1	13
22	Barnsley	13	3	4	6	-5	13
23	Sunderland	13	1	5	7	-8	8
24	Burton Albion	13	2	2	9	-16	8

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Wolves	13	9	2	2	+12	29
2	Bristol City	12	6	5	1	+7	23
3	Derby	12	6	4	2	+5	22
4	Leeds	13	7	0	6	+1	21
5	Preston	13	5	5	3	+1	20
6	Cardiff	13	6	2	5	-1	20
7	Fulham	12	5	3	4	+2	18
8	Middlesbrough	12	5	2	5	+4	17
9	Sheffield United	13	5	2	6	-1	17
10	Norwich	13	5	2	6	-5	17
11	Burton Albion	13	4	4	5	-7	16
12	Aston Villa	12	4	3	5	+1	15
13	Brentford	12	4	3	5	+0	15
14	Reading	13	4	3	6	-2	15
15	Sunderland	13	3	5	5	-6	14
16	Sheffield Weds	13	3	4	6	-4	13
17	Barnsley	13	3	4	6	-5	13
18	Ipswich	12	4	1	7	-6	13
19	Nott'm Forest	13	3	2	8	-9	11
20	QPR	13	1	5	7	-11	8
21	Hull	13	1	5	7	-12	8
22	Bolton	13	1	5	7	-15	8
23	Millwall	13	0	6	7	-9	6
24	Birmingham	12	0	3	9	-17	3

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.