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Championship

Referee: Tim Robinson

Bristol City

S S S T T

1–1

Full-time

Aston Villa

U T U S T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Bristol City Aston Villa

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 42%

67%

17%

Points per game

2,0

1,0

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

50%

Both score Ø 58%

33%

83%

Average goals

2,8

3,0

Scored

1,8

1,3

Conceded

1,0

1,7

Goal diff per game

+0,8

-0,3

This season — Championship · 9/9 matches

Win Ø 39%

44%

33%

Points per game

1,6

1,4

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

44%

56%

Both score Ø 67%

44%

89%

Average goals

2,8

3,2

Scored

1,6

1,7

Conceded

1,2

1,6

Goal diff per game

+0,3

+0,1

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–1

45% Possession 55%

7 Shots 12

3 Shots on target 5

2 Blocked shots 4

4 Goalkeeper saves 2

3 Corners 8

3 Offside 1

15 Free kicks against 18

2 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Bristol City 9. · Aston Villa 13. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Middlesbrough	9	5	3	1	+8	18
2	West Brom	9	5	2	2	+10	17
3	Leeds	9	4	4	1	+9	16
4	Derby	8	5	1	2	+6	16
5	Sheffield United	9	5	1	3	+4	16
6	Wigan	9	5	1	3	+3	16
7	Brentford	9	4	3	2	+6	15
8	Sheffield Weds	10	4	3	3	+0	15
9	Bristol City	9	4	2	3	+3	14
10	Nott'm Forest	9	3	5	1	+2	14
11	Norwich	9	4	2	3	+0	14
12	Blackburn	9	3	5	1	+0	14
13	Aston Villa	9	3	4	2	+1	13
14	Swansea	9	3	4	2	+1	13
15	Bolton	9	3	3	3	-3	12
16	QPR	9	3	1	5	-8	10
17	Birmingham	9	1	6	2	-1	9
18	Stoke	9	2	3	4	-4	9
19	Rotherham	9	3	0	6	-8	9
20	Reading	9	2	2	5	-1	8
21	Hull	9	2	1	6	-7	7
22	Millwall	9	1	3	5	-6	6
23	Ipswich	9	0	5	4	-6	5
24	Preston	9	1	2	6	-9	5

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Middlesbrough	5	4	1	0	+7	13
2	Wigan	5	4	1	0	+4	13
3	West Brom	5	4	0	1	+10	12
4	Brentford	4	4	0	0	+9	12
5	Nott'm Forest	5	3	2	0	+3	11
6	Leeds	5	3	1	1	+6	10
7	Derby	4	3	1	0	+6	10
8	Sheffield United	5	3	1	1	+4	10
9	Sheffield Weds	5	2	3	0	+2	9
10	Rotherham	4	3	0	1	+2	9
11	Aston Villa	5	2	2	1	+2	8
12	Bristol City	4	2	1	1	+2	7
13	Stoke	5	2	1	2	-1	7
14	Blackburn	4	1	3	0	+1	6
15	Norwich	4	2	0	2	-1	6
16	QPR	5	2	0	3	-2	6
17	Preston	4	1	2	1	+0	5
18	Millwall	4	1	2	1	+0	5
19	Ipswich	5	0	5	0	+0	5
20	Swansea	4	1	2	1	+0	5
21	Birmingham	4	0	4	0	+0	4
22	Bolton	4	1	1	2	-3	4
23	Reading	5	1	0	4	-1	3
24	Hull	4	1	0	3	-2	3

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Norwich	5	2	2	1	+1	8
2	Swansea	5	2	2	1	+1	8
3	Bolton	5	2	2	1	+0	8
4	Blackburn	5	2	2	1	-1	8
5	Bristol City	5	2	1	2	+1	7
6	Leeds	4	1	3	0	+3	6
7	Derby	4	2	0	2	+0	6
8	Sheffield United	4	2	0	2	+0	6
9	Sheffield Weds	5	2	0	3	-2	6
10	Middlesbrough	4	1	2	1	+1	5
11	West Brom	4	1	2	1	+0	5
12	Reading	4	1	2	1	+0	5
13	Aston Villa	4	1	2	1	-1	5
14	Birmingham	5	1	2	2	-1	5
15	Hull	5	1	1	3	-5	4
16	QPR	4	1	1	2	-6	4
17	Wigan	4	1	0	3	-1	3
18	Nott'm Forest	4	0	3	1	-1	3
19	Brentford	5	0	3	2	-3	3
20	Stoke	4	0	2	2	-3	2
21	Millwall	5	0	1	4	-6	1
22	Ipswich	4	0	0	4	-6	0
23	Preston	5	0	0	5	-9	0
24	Rotherham	5	0	0	5	-10	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.