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Championship

Referee: England Darren

Stoke

U S U U U

2–1

Full-time

Derby

S U S T S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Stoke Derby

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 42%

17%

67%

Points per game

1,2

2,2

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

17%

83%

Both score Ø 58%

33%

83%

Average goals

1,3

3,3

Scored

0,7

2,0

Conceded

0,7

1,3

Goal diff per game

+0,0

+0,7

This season — Championship · 18/17 matches

Win Ø 41%

28%

53%

Points per game

1,3

1,8

Over 2.5 Ø 49%

44%

53%

Both score Ø 58%

50%

65%

Average goals

2,4

2,5

Scored

1,2

1,5

Conceded

1,2

1,0

Goal diff per game

-0,1

+0,5

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

26% Possession 74%

8 Shots 16

4 Shots on target 8

3 Blocked shots 6

7 Goalkeeper saves 2

6 Corners 7

1 Offside 0

12 Free kicks against 10

2 Yellow cards 3

1 Red cards 0

The table before the match Stoke 15. · Derby 7. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Norwich	19	11	4	4	+11	37
2	Middlesbrough	19	9	8	2	+12	35
3	West Brom	19	10	4	5	+14	34
4	Sheffield United	19	10	4	5	+9	34
5	Leeds	18	9	6	3	+12	33
6	Nott'm Forest	19	7	10	2	+9	31
7	Derby	17	9	4	4	+9	31
8	Aston Villa	19	7	7	5	+6	28
9	QPR	19	8	4	7	-4	28
10	Birmingham	19	6	9	4	+3	27
11	Swansea	19	7	5	7	+2	26
12	Blackburn	19	6	8	5	-6	26
13	Bristol City	19	7	4	8	+0	25
14	Wigan	19	7	3	9	-5	24
15	Stoke	18	5	8	5	-1	23
16	Sheffield Weds	19	6	5	8	-9	23
17	Preston	19	5	7	7	-1	22
18	Brentford	19	5	6	8	+2	21
19	Rotherham	19	4	8	7	-9	20
20	Reading	19	4	5	10	-6	17
21	Millwall	19	4	5	10	-9	17
22	Hull	19	4	5	10	-10	17
23	Bolton	19	4	5	10	-13	17
24	Ipswich	19	1	8	10	-16	11

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Leeds	10	6	3	1	+11	21
2	Wigan	10	6	3	1	+6	21
3	West Brom	9	6	1	2	+13	19
4	Aston Villa	10	5	4	1	+7	19
5	Sheffield United	9	5	3	1	+7	18
6	Middlesbrough	9	5	3	1	+7	18
7	Norwich	9	6	0	3	+2	18
8	Brentford	10	5	2	3	+8	17
9	Derby	8	5	2	1	+6	17
10	Rotherham	10	4	5	1	+3	17
11	Preston	10	4	4	2	+7	16
12	QPR	9	5	1	3	+3	16
13	Nott'm Forest	9	4	4	1	+3	16
14	Birmingham	9	3	6	0	+5	15
15	Millwall	10	4	3	3	+2	15
16	Swansea	10	4	2	4	+2	14
17	Blackburn	9	3	5	1	+1	14
18	Sheffield Weds	10	3	4	3	-3	13
19	Stoke	9	3	3	3	+0	12
20	Bristol City	9	3	2	4	+0	11
21	Reading	9	3	1	5	+1	10
22	Hull	10	2	3	5	-4	9
23	Bolton	9	2	1	6	-8	7
24	Ipswich	10	0	6	4	-6	6

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Norwich	10	5	4	1	+9	19
2	Middlesbrough	10	4	5	1	+5	17
3	Sheffield United	10	5	1	4	+2	16
4	Nott'm Forest	10	3	6	1	+6	15
5	West Brom	10	4	3	3	+1	15
6	Derby	9	4	2	3	+3	14
7	Bristol City	10	4	2	4	+0	14
8	Leeds	8	3	3	2	+1	12
9	Swansea	9	3	3	3	+0	12
10	Birmingham	10	3	3	4	-2	12
11	Blackburn	10	3	3	4	-7	12
12	QPR	10	3	3	4	-7	12
13	Stoke	9	2	5	2	-1	11
14	Bolton	10	2	4	4	-5	10
15	Sheffield Weds	9	3	1	5	-6	10
16	Aston Villa	9	2	3	4	-1	9
17	Hull	9	2	2	5	-6	8
18	Reading	10	1	4	5	-7	7
19	Preston	9	1	3	5	-8	6
20	Ipswich	9	1	2	6	-10	5
21	Brentford	9	0	4	5	-6	4
22	Wigan	9	1	0	8	-11	3
23	Rotherham	9	0	3	6	-12	3
24	Millwall	9	0	2	7	-11	2

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.