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Championship

Referee: Chris Kavanagh

Derby

U U S S U

3–1

Full-time

Birmingham

U S S S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Derby Birmingham

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 50%

33%

67%

Points per game

1,5

2,3

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

33%

67%

Both score Ø 83%

83%

Average goals

2,5

3,0

Scored

1,5

2,0

Conceded

1,0

Goal diff per game

+0,5

+1,0

This season — Championship · 14/15 matches

Win Ø 42%

50%

33%

Points per game

1,8

1,5

Over 2.5 Ø 45%

43%

47%

Both score Ø 62%

64%

60%

Average goals

2,4

2,2

Scored

1,5

1,3

Conceded

0,9

Goal diff per game

+0,6

+0,3

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

70% Possession 30%

18 Shots 7

10 Shots on target 3

2 Blocked shots 3

2 Goalkeeper saves 7

6 Corners 7

5 Free kicks against 11

0 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Derby 5. · Birmingham 9. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Sheffield United	15	9	2	4	+9	29
2	Middlesbrough	15	7	6	2	+9	27
3	Norwich	15	8	3	4	+3	27
4	West Brom	15	7	4	4	+10	25
5	Derby	14	7	4	3	+9	25
6	Leeds	14	6	6	2	+11	24
7	Nott'm Forest	15	5	8	2	+6	23
8	Swansea	15	6	5	4	+6	23
9	Birmingham	15	5	8	2	+5	23
10	QPR	15	7	2	6	-4	23
11	Bristol City	15	6	4	5	+3	22
12	Blackburn	15	5	7	3	-2	22
13	Aston Villa	16	5	6	5	+1	21
14	Stoke	15	5	5	5	-1	20
15	Wigan	15	6	2	7	-4	20
16	Sheffield Weds	15	5	4	6	-5	19
17	Brentford	15	4	6	5	+3	18
18	Millwall	15	4	4	7	-4	16
19	Bolton	16	4	4	8	-11	16
20	Preston	15	3	5	7	-5	14
21	Rotherham	15	3	5	7	-10	14
22	Reading	15	3	3	9	-6	12
23	Hull	15	3	3	9	-9	12
24	Ipswich	15	1	6	8	-14	9

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Sheffield United	8	5	2	1	+7	17
2	Wigan	7	5	2	0	+5	17
3	West Brom	8	5	1	2	+10	16
4	Leeds	8	4	3	1	+8	15
5	Aston Villa	8	4	3	1	+5	15
6	Middlesbrough	8	4	3	1	+5	15
7	Norwich	8	5	0	3	+1	15
8	Brentford	7	4	2	1	+8	14
9	Derby	6	4	2	0	+7	14
10	Swansea	8	4	2	2	+6	14
11	Birmingham	8	3	5	0	+5	14
12	Millwall	8	4	2	2	+4	14
13	QPR	8	4	1	3	+2	13
14	Preston	8	3	3	2	+4	12
15	Nott'm Forest	7	3	3	1	+2	12
16	Rotherham	7	3	3	1	+2	12
17	Bristol City	8	3	2	3	+1	11
18	Sheffield Weds	7	2	4	1	+1	10
19	Blackburn	7	2	4	1	+0	10
20	Stoke	7	3	1	3	+0	10
21	Bolton	8	2	1	5	-7	7
22	Reading	7	2	0	5	+0	6
23	Hull	7	1	2	4	-3	5
24	Ipswich	7	0	5	2	-4	5

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Middlesbrough	7	3	3	1	+4	12
2	Sheffield United	7	4	0	3	+2	12
3	Norwich	7	3	3	1	+2	12
4	Blackburn	8	3	3	2	-2	12
5	Nott'm Forest	8	2	5	1	+4	11
6	Derby	8	3	2	3	+2	11
7	Bristol City	7	3	2	2	+2	11
8	Stoke	8	2	4	2	-1	10
9	QPR	7	3	1	3	-6	10
10	Leeds	6	2	3	1	+3	9
11	West Brom	7	2	3	2	+0	9
12	Birmingham	7	2	3	2	+0	9
13	Swansea	7	2	3	2	+0	9
14	Bolton	8	2	3	3	-4	9
15	Sheffield Weds	8	3	0	5	-6	9
16	Hull	8	2	1	5	-6	7
17	Aston Villa	8	1	3	4	-4	6
18	Reading	8	1	3	4	-6	6
19	Brentford	8	0	4	4	-5	4
20	Ipswich	8	1	1	6	-10	4
21	Wigan	8	1	0	7	-9	3
22	Millwall	7	0	2	5	-8	2
23	Preston	7	0	2	5	-9	2
24	Rotherham	8	0	2	6	-12	2

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.