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Championship

Referee: Jeremy Simpson

Sheffield Weds

T T T T U

1–2

Full-time

Derby

S S U S T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Sheffield Weds Derby

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 34%

17%

50%

Points per game

0,7

1,8

Over 2.5 Ø 75%

83%

67%

Both score Ø 67%

50%

83%

Average goals

2,8

3,2

Scored

0,7

1,8

Conceded

2,2

1,3

Goal diff per game

-1,5

+0,5

This season — Championship · 17/16 matches

Win Ø 40%

29%

50%

Points per game

1,2

1,8

Over 2.5 Ø 63%

76%

50%

Both score Ø 70%

76%

63%

Average goals

3,0

2,5

Scored

1,2

1,5

Conceded

1,8

1,0

Goal diff per game

-0,5

+0,5

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–2

48% Possession 52%

14 Shots 10

3 Shots on target 3

6 Blocked shots 3

1 Goalkeeper saves 2

6 Corners 9

3 Offside 0

11 Free kicks against 14

0 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Sheffield Weds 17. · Derby 5. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Norwich	17	10	3	4	+8	33
2	West Brom	18	9	4	5	+13	31
3	Middlesbrough	17	8	7	2	+11	31
4	Sheffield United	18	9	4	5	+8	31
5	Derby	16	8	4	4	+8	28
6	Leeds	16	7	6	3	+9	27
7	Nott'm Forest	17	6	9	2	+7	27
8	Swansea	17	7	5	5	+6	26
9	Blackburn	17	6	8	3	-1	26
10	QPR	17	8	2	7	-4	26
11	Aston Villa	17	6	6	5	+4	24
12	Birmingham	17	5	9	3	+3	24
13	Bristol City	17	6	4	7	+1	22
14	Stoke	17	5	7	5	-1	22
15	Brentford	17	5	6	6	+4	21
16	Wigan	17	6	2	9	-7	20
17	Sheffield Weds	17	5	5	7	-9	20
18	Rotherham	18	4	7	7	-9	19
19	Preston	17	4	6	7	-4	18
20	Reading	17	4	4	9	-5	16
21	Millwall	17	4	4	9	-7	16
22	Hull	17	4	4	9	-8	16
23	Bolton	17	4	4	9	-12	16
24	Ipswich	18	1	8	9	-15	11

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	West Brom	9	6	1	2	+13	19
2	Sheffield United	9	5	3	1	+7	18
3	Middlesbrough	9	5	3	1	+7	18
4	Norwich	9	6	0	3	+2	18
5	Brentford	8	5	2	1	+10	17
6	Derby	8	5	2	1	+6	17
7	Wigan	8	5	2	1	+4	17
8	QPR	9	5	1	3	+3	16
9	Rotherham	9	4	4	1	+3	16
10	Nott'm Forest	9	4	4	1	+3	16
11	Leeds	8	4	3	1	+8	15
12	Birmingham	9	3	6	0	+5	15
13	Aston Villa	8	4	3	1	+5	15
14	Swansea	8	4	2	2	+6	14
15	Millwall	8	4	2	2	+4	14
16	Blackburn	9	3	5	1	+1	14
17	Preston	8	3	3	2	+4	12
18	Bristol City	9	3	2	4	+0	11
19	Stoke	8	3	2	3	+0	11
20	Reading	9	3	1	5	+1	10
21	Sheffield Weds	8	2	4	2	-3	10
22	Hull	8	2	2	4	-2	8
23	Bolton	9	2	1	6	-8	7
24	Ipswich	9	0	6	3	-5	6

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Norwich	8	4	3	1	+6	15
2	Middlesbrough	8	3	4	1	+4	13
3	Sheffield United	9	4	1	4	+1	13
4	Leeds	8	3	3	2	+1	12
5	West Brom	9	3	3	3	+0	12
6	Swansea	9	3	3	3	+0	12
7	Blackburn	8	3	3	2	-2	12
8	Nott'm Forest	8	2	5	1	+4	11
9	Derby	8	3	2	3	+2	11
10	Bristol City	8	3	2	3	+1	11
11	Stoke	9	2	5	2	-1	11
12	Sheffield Weds	9	3	1	5	-6	10
13	QPR	8	3	1	4	-7	10
14	Aston Villa	9	2	3	4	-1	9
15	Birmingham	8	2	3	3	-2	9
16	Bolton	8	2	3	3	-4	9
17	Hull	9	2	2	5	-6	8
18	Reading	8	1	3	4	-6	6
19	Preston	9	1	3	5	-8	6
20	Ipswich	9	1	2	6	-10	5
21	Brentford	9	0	4	5	-6	4
22	Wigan	9	1	0	8	-11	3
23	Rotherham	9	0	3	6	-12	3
24	Millwall	9	0	2	7	-11	2

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.