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Championship
Referee: Peter Bankes
Middlesbrough
U S T S U
1–1
Full-time
Derby
T U U S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Middlesbrough Derby
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 42%
33%
50%
Points per game
1,5
1,8
Over 2.5 Ø 34%
17%
50%
Both score Ø 58%
33%
83%
Average goals
1,5
2,8
Scored
0,8
1,8
Conceded
0,7
1,0
Goal diff per game
+0,2
+0,8
This season — Championship · 14/13 matches
Win Ø 52%
50%
54%
Points per game
1,9
1,8
Over 2.5 Ø 34%
21%
46%
Both score Ø 42%
21%
62%
Average goals
1,6
2,4
Scored
1,1
1,5
Conceded
0,5
0,8
Goal diff per game
+0,6
+0,7
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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

41% Possession 59%
10 Shots 18
0 Shots on target 7
3 Blocked shots 4
7 Goalkeeper saves 0
9 Corners 4
1 Offside 1
12 Free kicks against 10
1 Yellow cards 1
0 Red cards 0
The table before the match Middlesbrough 1. · Derby 4. ▾
# Team K V U T +/− P
1 Middlesbrough 14 7 5 2 +9 26
2 Sheffield United 14 8 2 4 +7 26
3 West Brom 14 7 3 4 +10 24
4 Derby 13 7 3 3 +9 24
5 Norwich 14 7 3 4 +2 24
6 Leeds 13 6 5 2 +11 23
7 QPR 15 7 2 6 -4 23
8 Nott'm Forest 14 5 7 2 +6 22
9 Bristol City 14 6 4 4 +4 22
10 Blackburn 14 5 6 3 -2 21
11 Swansea 14 5 5 4 +4 20
12 Birmingham 14 4 8 2 +3 20
13 Wigan 14 6 2 6 -2 20
14 Sheffield Weds 14 5 4 5 -3 19
15 Brentford 14 4 6 4 +4 18
16 Aston Villa 15 4 6 5 -1 18
17 Stoke 14 4 5 5 -2 17
18 Bolton 14 4 4 6 -8 16
19 Preston 14 3 4 7 -5 13
20 Millwall 14 3 4 7 -7 13
21 Rotherham 14 3 4 7 -10 13
22 Reading 14 3 3 8 -4 12
23 Hull 14 2 3 9 -10 9
24 Ipswich 14 1 6 7 -11 9

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Recent head-to-head meetings

21. Apr -18 Derby – Middlesbrough 1–2 25. Nov -17 Middlesbrough – Derby 0–3 2. Jan -16 Middlesbrough – Derby 2–0 18. Aug -15 Derby – Middlesbrough 1–1

Match report

Middlesbrough Derby
19′
⚽ G. Friend 1–0
own goal
33′
🟨 Martyn Waghorn
Half-time 1–0
M. Braithwaite 🔁
↦ P. McNair
51′
G. Saville 🔁
↦ M. Bešić
55′
R. Gestede 🔁
↦ B. Assombalonga
55′
62′
🔁 B. Johnson
↦ M. Mount
67′
🔁 D. Nugent
↦ J. Marriott
1–1 J. Bogle ⚽
own goal
84′
Daniel Ayala 🟨
90′
Full-time 1–1

Line-ups

Middlesbrough

3-4-2-1
23 D. Randolph G
3 G. Friend D
4 Daniel Ayala D
24 A. Flint D
19 S. Downing F
16 J. Howson M
8 A. Clayton M
37 M. Bešić M
17 P. McNair M
20 D. Fry D
9 B. Assombalonga F
Bench (7)
10 M. Braithwaite
22 G. Saville
39 R. Gestede
6 D. Batth
11 J. Hugill
14 S. McQueen
31 A. Lonergan

Coach: T. Pulis

Derby

4-3-3
1 S. Carson G
6 R. Keogh D
46 S. Malone D
5 F. Tomori D
37 J. Bogle D
44 T. Huddlestone M
10 T. Lawrence M
7 H. Wilson M
8 M. Mount M
9 M. Waghorn F
14 J. Marriott F
Bench (7)
15 B. Johnson
28 D. Nugent
3 C. Forsyth
11 F. Jozefzoon
21 K. Roos
23 D. Holmes
33 C. Davies

Coach: F. Lampard

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
–
🔒
U1,5
–
🔒
O2,5
–
🔒
U2,5 ✓
–
🔒
O3,5
–
🔒
U3,5 ✓
–
🔒
Both teams to score
BLS ja ✓
–
🔒
BLS nei
–
🔒

Recent matches

Referee

Peter Bankes · 118 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
4,1 / match
Above average
⚽ Free kicks
21,9 / match
Average

🟥 Red cards: 0,17 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.