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Championship

Referee: Andy Davies

Birmingham

T T U S S

0–1

Full-time

Bolton

T T U T T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Birmingham Bolton

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 17%

33%

Points per game

1,3

0,2

Over 2.5 Ø 59%

67%

50%

Both score Ø 67%

83%

50%

Average goals

4,0

3,0

Scored

2,0

0,5

Conceded

2,0

2,5

Goal diff per game

+0,0

-2,0

This season — Championship · 31/31 matches

Win Ø 26%

35%

16%

Points per game

1,5

0,7

Over 2.5 Ø 45%

55%

35%

Both score Ø 49%

58%

39%

Average goals

2,8

2,2

Scored

1,6

0,6

Conceded

1,3

1,5

Goal diff per game

+0,3

-0,9

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

56% Possession 44%

13 Shots 6

3 Shots on target 2

3 Blocked shots 0

1 Goalkeeper saves 3

3 Corners 4

0 Offside 2

10 Free kicks against 14

1 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Birmingham 8. · Bolton 23. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Norwich	31	17	9	5	+21	60
2	Sheffield United	31	16	7	8	+19	55
3	West Brom	29	15	7	7	+22	52
4	Leeds	29	15	7	7	+11	52
5	Middlesbrough	30	13	12	5	+12	51
6	Derby	28	14	8	6	+12	50
7	Bristol City	30	14	8	8	+9	50
8	Birmingham	31	11	13	7	+10	46
9	Nott'm Forest	31	11	12	8	+8	45
10	Swansea	31	12	8	11	+4	44
11	Aston Villa	30	10	13	7	+7	43
12	Hull	31	12	7	12	+3	43
13	Blackburn	31	11	10	10	-5	43
14	Preston	31	10	10	11	+1	40
15	QPR	30	11	6	13	-7	39
16	Sheffield Weds	30	10	9	11	-11	39
17	Stoke	31	9	11	11	-7	38
18	Brentford	30	9	10	11	+6	37
19	Wigan	31	9	6	16	-14	33
20	Millwall	30	7	9	14	-11	30
21	Rotherham	31	5	12	14	-20	27
22	Reading	31	5	11	15	-12	26
23	Bolton	31	5	8	18	-27	23
24	Ipswich	31	3	9	19	-31	18

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Norwich	16	10	2	4	+9	32
2	Sheffield United	15	9	3	3	+13	30
3	Derby	14	8	5	1	+10	29
4	Nott'm Forest	16	8	4	4	+7	28
5	Brentford	15	8	3	4	+13	27
6	Leeds	14	8	3	3	+9	27
7	Blackburn	16	7	6	3	+7	27
8	Wigan	15	8	3	4	+3	27
9	Aston Villa	16	6	8	2	+7	26
10	West Brom	14	7	4	3	+14	25
11	Birmingham	15	6	7	2	+10	25
12	Swansea	16	7	4	5	+4	25
13	Hull	15	7	3	5	+10	24
14	Middlesbrough	15	6	6	3	+5	24
15	Stoke	16	7	3	6	+0	24
16	Bristol City	15	6	5	4	+4	23
17	QPR	15	7	2	6	+2	23
18	Millwall	15	6	5	4	+2	23
19	Preston	15	5	7	3	+7	22
20	Sheffield Weds	15	5	7	3	-1	22
21	Rotherham	16	5	7	4	-3	22
22	Reading	15	4	3	8	-3	15
23	Ipswich	15	2	7	6	-6	13
24	Bolton	16	3	4	9	-11	13

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Norwich	15	7	7	1	+12	28
2	West Brom	15	8	3	4	+8	27
3	Middlesbrough	15	7	6	2	+7	27
4	Bristol City	15	8	3	4	+5	27
5	Sheffield United	16	7	4	5	+6	25
6	Leeds	15	7	4	4	+2	25
7	Derby	14	6	3	5	+2	21
8	Birmingham	16	5	6	5	+0	21
9	Swansea	15	5	4	6	+0	19
10	Hull	16	5	4	7	-7	19
11	Preston	16	5	3	8	-6	18
12	Nott'm Forest	15	3	8	4	+1	17
13	Aston Villa	14	4	5	5	+0	17
14	Sheffield Weds	15	5	2	8	-10	17
15	QPR	15	4	4	7	-9	16
16	Blackburn	15	4	4	7	-12	16
17	Stoke	15	2	8	5	-7	14
18	Reading	16	1	8	7	-9	11
19	Brentford	15	1	7	7	-7	10
20	Bolton	15	2	4	9	-16	10
21	Millwall	15	1	4	10	-13	7
22	Wigan	16	1	3	12	-17	6
23	Rotherham	15	0	5	10	-17	5
24	Ipswich	16	1	2	13	-25	5

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.