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Championship

Referee: Stephen Martin

Swansea

T U S U S

3–3

Full-time

Birmingham

S U U T T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Swansea Birmingham

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 33%

33%

Points per game

1,3

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

50%

Both score Ø 59%

67%

50%

Average goals

3,0

2,3

Scored

1,7

1,3

Conceded

1,3

1,0

Goal diff per game

+0,3

This season — Championship · 28/28 matches

Win Ø 36%

39%

32%

Points per game

1,4

Over 2.5 Ø 54%

54%

Both score Ø 56%

54%

57%

Average goals

2,5

2,6

Scored

1,3

1,4

Conceded

1,1

1,2

Goal diff per game

+0,2

+0,3

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–1

73% Possession 27%

16 Shots 9

7 Shots on target 3

3 Blocked shots 4

1 Goalkeeper saves 4

12 Corners 4

0 Offside 3

15 Free kicks against 15

2 Yellow cards 6

0 Red cards 1

The table before the match Swansea 11. · Birmingham 13. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Norwich	29	15	9	5	+16	54
2	Sheffield United	29	15	6	8	+17	51
3	Leeds	27	15	6	6	+13	51
4	West Brom	27	14	7	6	+22	49
5	Middlesbrough	28	12	11	5	+11	47
6	Derby	26	13	7	6	+10	46
7	Bristol City	28	12	8	8	+6	44
8	Blackburn	29	11	10	8	-1	43
9	Nott'm Forest	29	10	12	7	+9	42
10	Aston Villa	28	10	11	7	+7	41
11	Swansea	28	11	7	10	+5	40
12	Hull	29	11	7	11	+3	40
13	Birmingham	28	9	12	7	+7	39
14	QPR	28	11	6	11	-5	39
15	Stoke	29	9	11	9	-4	38
16	Preston	29	9	9	11	+0	36
17	Sheffield Weds	28	9	8	11	-12	35
18	Brentford	28	8	10	10	+4	34
19	Millwall	28	7	8	13	-10	29
20	Wigan	29	8	5	16	-15	29
21	Rotherham	29	5	10	14	-20	25
22	Reading	28	5	8	15	-12	23
23	Bolton	28	5	7	16	-24	22
24	Ipswich	29	3	9	17	-27	18

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Norwich	15	9	2	4	+6	29
2	Sheffield United	14	8	3	3	+11	27
3	Leeds	13	8	3	2	+11	27
4	Blackburn	15	7	6	2	+8	27
5	Derby	13	7	5	1	+8	26
6	West Brom	13	7	4	2	+15	25
7	Aston Villa	15	6	7	2	+7	25
8	Nott'm Forest	15	7	4	4	+6	25
9	Brentford	14	7	3	4	+10	24
10	Wigan	14	7	3	4	+2	24
11	Stoke	15	7	3	5	+1	24
12	Middlesbrough	14	6	5	3	+5	23
13	QPR	14	7	2	5	+3	23
14	Birmingham	14	5	7	2	+8	22
15	Millwall	14	6	4	4	+2	22
16	Hull	14	6	3	5	+8	21
17	Preston	14	5	6	3	+7	21
18	Swansea	14	6	3	5	+3	21
19	Sheffield Weds	14	5	6	3	-1	21
20	Rotherham	15	5	6	4	-3	21
21	Bristol City	14	5	5	4	+2	20
22	Reading	14	4	2	8	-3	14
23	Ipswich	14	2	7	5	-5	13
24	Bolton	14	3	3	8	-10	12

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Norwich	14	6	7	1	+10	25
2	West Brom	14	7	3	4	+7	24
3	Sheffield United	15	7	3	5	+6	24
4	Middlesbrough	14	6	6	2	+6	24
5	Bristol City	14	7	3	4	+4	24
6	Leeds	14	7	3	4	+2	24
7	Derby	13	6	2	5	+2	20
8	Swansea	14	5	4	5	+2	19
9	Hull	15	5	4	6	-5	19
10	Nott'm Forest	14	3	8	3	+3	17
11	Birmingham	14	4	5	5	-1	17
12	Aston Villa	13	4	4	5	+0	16
13	QPR	14	4	4	6	-8	16
14	Blackburn	14	4	4	6	-9	16
15	Preston	15	4	3	8	-7	15
16	Stoke	14	2	8	4	-5	14
17	Sheffield Weds	14	4	2	8	-11	14
18	Brentford	14	1	7	6	-6	10
19	Bolton	14	2	4	8	-14	10
20	Reading	14	1	6	7	-9	9
21	Millwall	14	1	4	9	-12	7
22	Wigan	15	1	2	12	-17	5
23	Ipswich	15	1	2	12	-22	5
24	Rotherham	14	0	4	10	-17	4

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.