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Championship

Referee: Scott Duncan

Birmingham

S S U T U

1–0

Full-time

Bolton

S U S T U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Birmingham Bolton

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 33%

33%

Points per game

1,5

1,3

Over 2.5 Ø 67%

50%

83%

Both score Ø 58%

33%

83%

Average goals

1,8

3,5

Scored

1,3

1,7

Conceded

0,5

1,8

Goal diff per game

+0,8

-0,2

This season — Championship · 31/32 matches

Win Ø 28%

42%

13%

Points per game

1,5

0,8

Over 2.5 Ø 43%

35%

50%

Both score Ø 46%

39%

53%

Average goals

2,2

2,6

Scored

1,2

1,0

Conceded

1,0

1,7

Goal diff per game

+0,3

-0,7

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

42% Possession 58%

13 Shots 4

5 Shots on target 1

5 Blocked shots 1

1 Goalkeeper saves 4

6 Corners 3

4 Offside 0

0 Free kicks against 0

2 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Birmingham 8. · Bolton 23. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Hull	30	18	6	6	+30	60
2	Burnley	32	16	11	5	+24	59
3	Middlesbrough	30	17	7	6	+23	58
4	Brighton	31	15	11	5	+7	56
5	Sheffield Weds	31	14	10	7	+15	52
6	Derby	31	13	12	6	+13	51
7	Cardiff	32	12	13	7	+8	49
8	Birmingham	31	13	9	9	+8	48
9	Ipswich	31	13	9	9	+1	48
10	Preston	32	11	12	9	+1	45
11	Nott'm Forest	31	10	12	9	+4	42
12	QPR	32	9	13	10	-1	40
13	Wolves	32	10	10	12	-3	40
14	Brentford	32	11	7	14	-8	40
15	Huddersfield	32	10	8	14	-1	38
16	Reading	31	9	10	12	+0	37
17	Leeds	31	8	13	10	-5	37
18	Fulham	32	8	11	13	-3	35
19	Blackburn	30	7	13	10	+1	34
20	Bristol City	32	8	10	14	-19	34
21	Milton Keynes Dons	32	8	7	17	-19	31
22	Rotherham	32	7	5	20	-21	26
23	Bolton	32	4	13	15	-22	25
24	Charlton	32	5	10	17	-33	25

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Hull	14	11	3	0	+26	36
2	Burnley	16	11	3	2	+20	36
3	Brighton	16	11	2	3	+8	35
4	Sheffield Weds	15	10	4	1	+19	34
5	Middlesbrough	15	10	3	2	+17	33
6	Cardiff	16	8	7	1	+11	31
7	Derby	16	7	6	3	+11	27
8	Reading	16	6	7	3	+7	25
9	Nott'm Forest	16	6	6	4	+6	24
10	Ipswich	15	6	6	3	+4	24
11	Preston	16	6	6	4	+1	24
12	QPR	16	5	8	3	+4	23
13	Birmingham	15	7	2	6	+1	23
14	Huddersfield	16	6	4	6	+6	22
15	Bolton	16	4	9	3	+1	21
16	Brentford	16	6	3	7	-4	21
17	Fulham	16	5	5	6	+3	20
18	Milton Keynes Dons	16	6	2	8	-8	20
19	Blackburn	15	4	7	4	+4	19
20	Wolves	16	4	6	6	-3	18
21	Leeds	16	4	6	6	-4	18
22	Rotherham	16	5	3	8	-5	18
23	Bristol City	16	4	6	6	-6	18
24	Charlton	16	3	7	6	-8	16

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Birmingham	16	6	7	3	+7	25
2	Middlesbrough	15	7	4	4	+6	25
3	Hull	16	7	3	6	+4	24
4	Derby	15	6	6	3	+2	24
5	Ipswich	16	7	3	6	-3	24
6	Burnley	16	5	8	3	+4	23
7	Wolves	16	6	4	6	+0	22
8	Preston	16	5	6	5	+0	21
9	Brighton	15	4	9	2	-1	21
10	Leeds	15	4	7	4	-1	19
11	Brentford	16	5	4	7	-4	19
12	Nott'm Forest	15	4	6	5	-2	18
13	Cardiff	16	4	6	6	-3	18
14	Sheffield Weds	16	4	6	6	-4	18
15	QPR	16	4	5	7	-5	17
16	Huddersfield	16	4	4	8	-7	16
17	Bristol City	16	4	4	8	-13	16
18	Blackburn	15	3	6	6	-3	15
19	Fulham	16	3	6	7	-6	15
20	Reading	15	3	3	9	-7	12
21	Milton Keynes Dons	16	2	5	9	-11	11
22	Charlton	16	2	3	11	-25	9
23	Rotherham	16	2	2	12	-16	8
24	Bolton	16	0	4	12	-23	4

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.