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Bundesliga

Referee: Daniel Siebert

Mainz

T S S T

3–1

Full-time

Hoffenheim

T T U T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Mainz Hoffenheim

Last 6 — all competitions · 4/4 matches

Win Ø 25%

50%

Points per game

1,5

0,3

Over 2.5 Ø 75%

75%

Both score Ø 63%

50%

75%

Average goals

2,5

Scored

1,5

0,8

Conceded

1,0

1,8

Goal diff per game

+0,5

-1,0

This season — Bundesliga · 4/4 matches

Win Ø 25%

50%

Points per game

1,5

0,3

Over 2.5 Ø 75%

75%

Both score Ø 63%

50%

75%

Average goals

2,5

Scored

1,5

0,8

Conceded

1,0

1,8

Goal diff per game

+0,5

-1,0

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–1

58% Possession 42%

12 Shots 13

4 Shots on target 4

4 Blocked shots 5

3 Goalkeeper saves 1

6 Corners 8

3 Offside 2

0 Free kicks against 0

1 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Mainz 10. · Hoffenheim 15. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Dortmund	4	4	0	0	+12	12
2	Bayern Munich	4	4	0	0	+10	12
3	Wolfsburg	4	2	2	0	+4	8
4	Ein Frankfurt	4	2	1	1	+6	7
5	Schalke 04	4	2	1	1	+1	7
6	Werder Bremen	4	2	1	1	+0	7
7	Hertha	4	2	1	1	+0	7
8	FC Koln	4	2	1	1	-1	7
9	FC Ingolstadt 04	4	2	1	1	-2	7
10	Mainz	4	2	0	2	+2	6
11	Darmstadt	4	1	3	0	+1	6
12	Hamburg	4	2	0	2	-2	6
13	Leverkusen	4	2	0	2	-2	6
14	Augsburg	4	0	1	3	-3	1
15	Hoffenheim	4	0	1	3	-4	1
16	Hannover	4	0	1	3	-6	1
17	Stuttgart	4	0	0	4	-7	0
18	M'gladbach	4	0	0	4	-9	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Bayern Munich	3	3	0	0	+9	9
2	Dortmund	2	2	0	0	+6	6
3	Wolfsburg	2	2	0	0	+4	6
4	Ein Frankfurt	2	1	1	0	+4	4
5	Hertha	2	1	1	0	+1	4
6	Schalke 04	2	1	1	0	+1	4
7	FC Koln	2	1	1	0	+1	4
8	Mainz	2	1	0	1	+2	3
9	Hamburg	1	1	0	0	+1	3
10	Leverkusen	2	1	0	1	+0	3
11	Werder Bremen	2	1	0	1	-2	3
12	Darmstadt	2	0	2	0	+0	2
13	FC Ingolstadt 04	2	0	1	1	-4	1
14	Augsburg	2	0	0	2	-2	0
15	Hannover	2	0	0	2	-3	0
16	Hoffenheim	2	0	0	2	-3	0
17	M'gladbach	2	0	0	2	-4	0
18	Stuttgart	2	0	0	2	-5	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Dortmund	2	2	0	0	+6	6
2	FC Ingolstadt 04	2	2	0	0	+2	6
3	Werder Bremen	2	1	1	0	+2	4
4	Darmstadt	2	1	1	0	+1	4
5	Ein Frankfurt	2	1	0	1	+2	3
6	Bayern Munich	1	1	0	0	+1	3
7	Schalke 04	2	1	0	1	+0	3
8	Mainz	2	1	0	1	+0	3
9	Hertha	2	1	0	1	-1	3
10	FC Koln	2	1	0	1	-2	3
11	Leverkusen	2	1	0	1	-2	3
12	Hamburg	3	1	0	2	-3	3
13	Wolfsburg	2	0	2	0	+0	2
14	Augsburg	2	0	1	1	-1	1
15	Hoffenheim	2	0	1	1	-1	1
16	Hannover	2	0	1	1	-3	1
17	Stuttgart	2	0	0	2	-2	0
18	M'gladbach	2	0	0	2	-5	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.