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Primeira Liga

Referee: Tiago Martins

Vitoria Setubal

U S U T

2–2

Full-time

Guimaraes

T U U S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Vitoria Setubal Guimaraes

Last 6 — all competitions · 4/4 matches

Win Ø 25%

25%

Points per game

1,3

Over 2.5 Ø 63%

100%

25%

Both score Ø 50%

75%

25%

Average goals

4,8

1,5

Scored

2,5

0,5

Conceded

2,3

1,0

Goal diff per game

+0,3

-0,5

This season — Primeira Liga · 4/4 matches

Win Ø 25%

25%

Points per game

1,3

Over 2.5 Ø 63%

100%

25%

Both score Ø 50%

75%

25%

Average goals

4,8

1,5

Scored

2,5

0,5

Conceded

2,3

1,0

Goal diff per game

+0,3

-0,5

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–1

36% Possession 64%

8 Shots 19

5 Shots on target 5

2 Blocked shots 3

4 Goalkeeper saves 3

4 Corners 4

0 Offside 3

0 Free kicks against 0

6 Yellow cards 6

1 Red cards 0

The table before the match Vitoria Setubal 10. · Guimaraes 13. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Porto	4	3	1	0	+7	10
2	Sp Lisbon	4	3	1	0	+4	10
3	Benfica	4	3	0	1	+10	9
4	Pacos Ferreira	4	2	2	0	+2	8
5	Arouca	4	2	1	1	+1	7
6	Sp Braga	4	2	0	2	+3	6
7	Nacional	4	2	0	2	+1	6
8	Estoril	4	2	0	2	-3	6
9	Maritimo	4	1	2	1	+2	5
10	Vitoria Setubal	4	1	2	1	+1	5
11	Rio Ave	4	1	2	1	+0	5
12	U. Madeira	4	1	2	1	+0	5
13	Guimaraes	4	1	2	1	-2	5
14	Boavista	4	1	1	2	-4	4
15	Tondela	4	1	0	3	-2	3
16	Belenenses	4	0	3	1	-6	3
17	Moreirense	4	0	1	3	-5	1
18	Academica	4	0	0	4	-9	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Benfica	3	3	0	0	+11	9
2	Sp Braga	2	2	0	0	+5	6
3	Porto	2	2	0	0	+5	6
4	Nacional	2	2	0	0	+3	6
5	Estoril	2	2	0	0	+3	6
6	Maritimo	2	1	1	0	+3	4
7	U. Madeira	2	1	1	0	+1	4
8	Pacos Ferreira	2	1	1	0	+1	4
9	Guimaraes	2	1	1	0	+1	4
10	Tondela	2	1	0	1	+0	3
11	Rio Ave	2	1	0	1	+0	3
12	Boavista	2	1	0	1	+0	3
13	Arouca	2	1	0	1	-1	3
14	Belenenses	2	0	2	0	+0	2
15	Vitoria Setubal	2	0	2	0	+0	2
16	Sp Lisbon	1	0	1	0	+0	1
17	Moreirense	2	0	1	1	-2	1
18	Academica	2	0	0	2	-6	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Sp Lisbon	3	3	0	0	+4	9
2	Porto	2	1	1	0	+2	4
3	Arouca	2	1	1	0	+2	4
4	Pacos Ferreira	2	1	1	0	+1	4
5	Vitoria Setubal	2	1	0	1	+1	3
6	Rio Ave	2	0	2	0	+0	2
7	Maritimo	2	0	1	1	-1	1
8	U. Madeira	2	0	1	1	-1	1
9	Guimaraes	2	0	1	1	-3	1
10	Boavista	2	0	1	1	-4	1
11	Belenenses	2	0	1	1	-6	1
12	Benfica	1	0	0	1	-1	0
13	Nacional	2	0	0	2	-2	0
14	Sp Braga	2	0	0	2	-2	0
15	Tondela	2	0	0	2	-2	0
16	Moreirense	2	0	0	2	-3	0
17	Academica	2	0	0	2	-3	0
18	Estoril	2	0	0	2	-6	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.