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Bundesliga

Referee: Markus Schmidt

Dortmund

S S T S U

3–0

Full-time

Hamburg

T S S U S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Dortmund Hamburg

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 59%

67%

50%

Points per game

2,2

1,8

Over 2.5 Ø 67%

67%

Both score Ø 50%

50%

Average goals

3,3

3,2

Scored

2,5

1,2

Conceded

0,8

2,0

Goal diff per game

+1,7

-0,8

This season — Bundesliga · 26/26 matches

Win Ø 41%

50%

31%

Points per game

1,8

1,2

Over 2.5 Ø 58%

58%

Both score Ø 54%

65%

42%

Average goals

3,2

2,8

Scored

2,1

1,0

Conceded

1,1

1,8

Goal diff per game

+1,0

-0,8

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

61% Possession 39%

17 Shots 16

10 Shots on target 6

4 Blocked shots 1

6 Goalkeeper saves 7

6 Corners 4

1 Offside 2

6 Free kicks against 12

1 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Dortmund 4. · Hamburg 14. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Bayern Munich	26	20	5	1	+54	65
2	RB Leipzig	26	16	4	6	+19	52
3	Hoffenheim	26	12	12	2	+23	48
4	Dortmund	26	13	8	5	+27	47
5	Hertha	26	12	4	10	+2	40
6	FC Koln	26	9	10	7	+7	37
7	Ein Frankfurt	26	10	7	9	-1	37
8	Freiburg	26	10	5	11	-13	35
9	Schalke 04	26	9	7	10	+5	34
10	M'gladbach	26	9	6	11	-4	33
11	Leverkusen	26	9	5	12	-3	32
12	Werder Bremen	26	9	5	12	-7	32
13	Wolfsburg	26	8	6	12	-11	30
14	Hamburg	26	8	6	12	-21	30
15	Mainz	26	8	5	13	-9	29
16	Augsburg	26	7	8	11	-16	29
17	FC Ingolstadt 04	26	6	4	16	-18	22
18	Darmstadt	26	4	3	19	-34	15

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Bayern Munich	13	10	3	0	+39	33
2	RB Leipzig	13	10	1	2	+15	31
3	Hertha	13	10	1	2	+13	31
4	Dortmund	12	9	3	0	+22	30
5	Hoffenheim	13	8	5	0	+17	29
6	Schalke 04	14	7	3	4	+11	24
7	FC Koln	12	6	5	1	+9	23
8	Ein Frankfurt	13	6	5	2	+6	23
9	Freiburg	13	7	1	5	-5	22
10	M'gladbach	13	6	3	4	+8	21
11	Hamburg	13	6	3	4	-5	21
12	Mainz	13	5	4	4	+3	19
13	Leverkusen	14	5	4	5	+2	19
14	Werder Bremen	13	5	1	7	+0	16
15	Darmstadt	13	4	3	6	-7	15
16	Wolfsburg	13	4	2	7	-6	14
17	Augsburg	13	3	5	5	-7	14
18	FC Ingolstadt 04	13	3	3	7	-8	12

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Bayern Munich	13	10	2	1	+15	32
2	RB Leipzig	13	6	3	4	+4	21
3	Hoffenheim	13	4	7	2	+6	19
4	Dortmund	14	4	5	5	+5	17
5	Wolfsburg	13	4	4	5	-5	16
6	Werder Bremen	13	4	4	5	-7	16
7	Augsburg	13	4	3	6	-9	15
8	FC Koln	14	3	5	6	-2	14
9	Ein Frankfurt	13	4	2	7	-7	14
10	Leverkusen	12	4	1	7	-5	13
11	Freiburg	13	3	4	6	-8	13
12	M'gladbach	13	3	3	7	-12	12
13	Schalke 04	12	2	4	6	-6	10
14	FC Ingolstadt 04	13	3	1	9	-10	10
15	Mainz	13	3	1	9	-12	10
16	Hertha	13	2	3	8	-11	9
17	Hamburg	13	2	3	8	-16	9
18	Darmstadt	13	0	0	13	-27	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.