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Bundesliga

Referee: Marco Fritz

Dortmund

U S S S U

3–0

Full-time

Hamburg

S T T S T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Dortmund Hamburg

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 50%

67%

33%

Points per game

2,3

1,0

Over 2.5 Ø 59%

50%

67%

Both score Ø 50%

50%

Average goals

2,8

3,0

Scored

2,0

1,5

Conceded

0,8

1,5

Goal diff per game

+1,2

+0,0

This season — Bundesliga · 29/29 matches

Win Ø 52%

72%

31%

Points per game

2,3

1,2

Over 2.5 Ø 62%

69%

55%

Both score Ø 59%

62%

55%

Average goals

3,4

2,6

Scored

2,4

1,2

Conceded

1,0

1,4

Goal diff per game

+1,3

-0,2

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 2–0

71% Possession 29%

14 Shots 5

5 Shots on target 1

4 Blocked shots 0

1 Goalkeeper saves 2

10 Corners 0

1 Offside 2

0 Free kicks against 0

0 Red cards 1

The table before the match Dortmund 2. · Hamburg 11. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Bayern Munich	30	25	3	2	+58	78
2	Dortmund	29	21	5	3	+39	68
3	Leverkusen	30	15	6	9	+14	51
4	Hertha	30	14	7	9	+4	49
5	M'gladbach	30	14	3	13	+12	45
6	Mainz	29	13	6	10	+4	45
7	Schalke 04	30	13	6	11	-2	45
8	Wolfsburg	30	10	9	11	+1	39
9	FC Ingolstadt 04	30	10	9	11	-6	39
10	Darmstadt	30	8	11	11	-10	35
11	Hamburg	29	9	7	13	-5	34
12	FC Koln	29	8	10	11	-8	34
13	Hoffenheim	30	8	10	12	-10	34
14	Augsburg	30	8	9	13	-10	33
15	Stuttgart	30	9	6	15	-14	33
16	Werder Bremen	30	8	7	15	-19	31
17	Ein Frankfurt	30	6	9	15	-20	27
18	Hannover	30	6	3	21	-28	21

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Bayern Munich	15	14	0	1	+41	42
2	Dortmund	14	12	2	0	+28	38
3	M'gladbach	15	11	1	3	+21	34
4	Hertha	15	9	5	1	+12	32
5	Wolfsburg	15	8	5	2	+15	29
6	Schalke 04	15	8	4	3	+5	28
7	Leverkusen	15	8	3	4	+12	27
8	Mainz	14	8	2	4	+6	26
9	FC Ingolstadt 04	15	7	4	4	+5	25
10	Hoffenheim	15	5	6	4	-1	21
11	Stuttgart	15	6	1	8	-5	19
12	Ein Frankfurt	15	4	6	5	-4	18
13	Hamburg	15	4	4	7	-3	16
14	FC Koln	15	4	4	7	-5	16
15	Augsburg	15	3	5	7	-7	14
16	Werder Bremen	15	3	5	7	-8	14
17	Darmstadt	15	2	6	7	-11	12
18	Hannover	15	3	0	12	-14	9

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Bayern Munich	15	11	3	1	+17	36
2	Dortmund	15	9	3	3	+11	30
3	Leverkusen	15	7	3	5	+2	24
4	Darmstadt	15	6	5	4	+1	23
5	Mainz	15	5	4	6	-2	19
6	Augsburg	15	5	4	6	-3	19
7	Hamburg	14	5	3	6	-2	18
8	FC Koln	14	4	6	4	-3	18
9	Schalke 04	15	5	2	8	-7	17
10	Hertha	15	5	2	8	-8	17
11	Werder Bremen	15	5	2	8	-11	17
12	Stuttgart	15	3	5	7	-9	14
13	FC Ingolstadt 04	15	3	5	7	-11	14
14	Hoffenheim	15	3	4	8	-9	13
15	Hannover	15	3	3	9	-14	12
16	M'gladbach	15	3	2	10	-9	11
17	Wolfsburg	15	2	4	9	-14	10
18	Ein Frankfurt	15	2	3	10	-16	9

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.