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La Liga

Referee: Alejandro Hernandez

Barcelona

S S S S T

4–2

Full-time

Valencia

S T S T U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Barcelona Valencia

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 67%

83%

50%

Points per game

2,5

1,7

Over 2.5 Ø 75%

100%

50%

Both score Ø 59%

67%

50%

Average goals

4,5

2,3

Scored

3,7

1,2

Conceded

0,8

1,2

Goal diff per game

+2,8

+0,0

This season — La Liga · 27/27 matches

Win Ø 49%

67%

30%

Points per game

2,2

1,1

Over 2.5 Ø 69%

70%

67%

Both score Ø 65%

59%

70%

Average goals

3,7

3,1

Scored

2,9

1,3

Conceded

0,9

1,7

Goal diff per game

+2,0

-0,4

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 2–2

71% Possession 29%

28 Shots 6

12 Shots on target 5

6 Blocked shots 0

3 Goalkeeper saves 7

6 Corners 3

2 Offside 2

4 Free kicks against 12

3 Yellow cards 4

0 Red cards 1

The table before the match Barcelona 2. · Valencia 14. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Real Madrid	27	20	5	2	+43	65
2	Barcelona	27	18	6	3	+54	60
3	Sevilla	28	17	6	5	+18	57
4	Ath Madrid	28	16	7	5	+29	55
5	Villarreal	28	13	9	6	+19	48
6	Sociedad	28	15	3	10	+3	48
7	Ath Bilbao	28	13	5	10	+3	44
8	Eibar	28	11	8	9	+5	41
9	Espanol	28	10	10	8	+1	40
10	Alaves	28	10	10	8	-4	40
11	Celta	27	11	5	11	-5	38
12	Las Palmas	28	9	8	11	-1	35
13	Betis	28	8	7	13	-13	31
14	Valencia	27	8	6	13	-11	30
15	Malaga	28	6	9	13	-12	27
16	La Coruna	28	6	9	13	-12	27
17	Leganes	28	6	8	14	-19	26
18	Sp Gijon	28	5	6	17	-26	21
19	Granada	28	4	7	17	-33	19
20	Osasuna	28	1	8	19	-39	11

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Real Madrid	14	11	3	0	+22	36
2	Ath Bilbao	15	10	3	2	+11	33
3	Ath Madrid	14	10	2	2	+20	32
4	Sevilla	13	10	2	1	+13	32
5	Barcelona	13	9	3	1	+30	30
6	Las Palmas	15	8	5	2	+13	29
7	Villarreal	14	8	3	3	+13	27
8	Eibar	15	8	3	4	+6	27
9	Celta	13	8	1	4	+5	25
10	Sociedad	14	7	3	4	+2	24
11	Espanol	14	6	5	3	+7	23
12	Betis	15	5	6	4	+0	21
13	Malaga	13	6	2	5	+2	20
14	La Coruna	14	5	4	5	+4	19
15	Alaves	14	4	7	3	-5	19
16	Valencia	13	5	3	5	-4	18
17	Granada	13	4	4	5	+0	16
18	Leganes	14	3	5	6	-5	14
19	Sp Gijon	14	4	2	8	-11	14
20	Osasuna	14	0	5	9	-17	5

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Barcelona	14	9	3	2	+24	30
2	Real Madrid	13	9	2	2	+21	29
3	Sevilla	15	7	4	4	+5	25
4	Sociedad	14	8	0	6	+1	24
5	Ath Madrid	14	6	5	3	+9	23
6	Villarreal	14	5	6	3	+6	21
7	Alaves	14	6	3	5	+1	21
8	Espanol	14	4	5	5	-6	17
9	Eibar	13	3	5	5	-1	14
10	Celta	14	3	4	7	-10	13
11	Valencia	14	3	3	8	-7	12
12	Leganes	14	3	3	8	-14	12
13	Ath Bilbao	13	3	2	8	-8	11
14	Betis	13	3	1	9	-13	10
15	La Coruna	14	1	5	8	-16	8
16	Malaga	15	0	7	8	-14	7
17	Sp Gijon	14	1	4	9	-15	7
18	Las Palmas	13	1	3	9	-14	6
19	Osasuna	14	1	3	10	-22	6
20	Granada	15	0	3	12	-33	3

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.