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Serie A

Referee: Maurizio Mariani

Spal

T S S S T

2–0

Full-time

Atalanta

U T S U T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Spal Atalanta

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 42%

67%

17%

Points per game

2,0

1,0

Over 2.5 Ø 33%

33%

Both score Ø 42%

33%

50%

Average goals

2,0

2,7

Scored

1,3

1,5

Conceded

0,7

1,2

Goal diff per game

+0,7

+0,3

This season — Serie A · 3/3 matches

Win Ø 50%

67%

33%

Points per game

2,0

1,3

Over 2.5 Ø 34%

67%

Both score Ø 17%

33%

Average goals

1,0

3,7

Scored

0,7

2,3

Conceded

0,3

1,3

Goal diff per game

+0,3

+1,0

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

42% Possession 58%

17 Shots 13

5 Shots on target 1

3 Blocked shots 3

1 Goalkeeper saves 3

4 Corners 4

16 Free kicks against 19

3 Yellow cards 5

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Spal 6. · Atalanta 13. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Juventus	4	4	0	0	+5	12
2	Napoli	4	3	0	1	+0	9
3	Sassuolo	4	2	1	1	+2	7
4	Sampdoria	3	2	0	1	+7	6
5	Fiorentina	3	2	0	1	+5	6
6	Spal	3	2	0	1	+1	6
7	Genoa	3	2	0	1	+0	6
8	Lazio	4	2	0	2	-1	6
9	Roma	4	1	2	1	+0	5
10	Udinese	4	1	2	1	+0	5
11	Torino	4	1	2	1	+0	5
12	Cagliari	4	1	2	1	-1	5
13	Atalanta	3	1	1	1	+3	4
14	Inter	4	1	1	2	+1	4
15	Milan	3	1	1	1	+0	4
16	Empoli	4	1	1	2	+0	4
17	Parma	4	1	1	2	-1	4
18	Chievo	4	0	2	2	-6	2
19	Bologna	4	0	1	3	-5	1
20	Frosinone	4	0	1	3	-10	1

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Fiorentina	2	2	0	0	+6	6
2	Sassuolo	2	2	0	0	+3	6
3	Juventus	2	2	0	0	+3	6
4	Napoli	2	2	0	0	+2	6
5	Genoa	2	2	0	0	+2	6
6	Udinese	2	1	1	0	+1	4
7	Atalanta	2	1	0	1	+3	3
8	Sampdoria	1	1	0	0	+3	3
9	Milan	1	1	0	0	+1	3
10	Empoli	2	1	0	1	+1	3
11	Spal	1	1	0	0	+1	3
12	Lazio	2	1	0	1	+0	3
13	Torino	2	1	0	1	+0	3
14	Roma	2	0	2	0	+0	2
15	Cagliari	2	0	2	0	+0	2
16	Parma	2	0	1	1	-1	1
17	Inter	2	0	1	1	-1	1
18	Chievo	2	0	1	1	-1	1
19	Frosinone	2	0	1	1	-5	1
20	Bologna	2	0	0	2	-4	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Juventus	2	2	0	0	+2	6
2	Sampdoria	2	1	0	1	+4	3
3	Inter	2	1	0	1	+2	3
4	Roma	2	1	0	1	+0	3
5	Parma	2	1	0	1	+0	3
6	Spal	2	1	0	1	+0	3
7	Lazio	2	1	0	1	-1	3
8	Cagliari	2	1	0	1	-1	3
9	Napoli	2	1	0	1	-2	3
10	Torino	2	0	2	0	+0	2
11	Atalanta	1	0	1	0	+0	1
12	Sassuolo	2	0	1	1	-1	1
13	Milan	2	0	1	1	-1	1
14	Udinese	2	0	1	1	-1	1
15	Empoli	2	0	1	1	-1	1
16	Bologna	2	0	1	1	-1	1
17	Chievo	2	0	1	1	-5	1
18	Fiorentina	1	0	0	1	-1	0
19	Genoa	1	0	0	1	-2	0
20	Frosinone	2	0	0	2	-5	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.