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Ligue 1

Referee: Ruddy Buquet

Bastia

U T T U T

2–2

Full-time

Nantes

U T S U S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Bastia Nantes

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 17%

33%

Points per game

0,5

1,3

Over 2.5 Ø 42%

50%

33%

Both score Ø 75%

83%

67%

Average goals

2,8

Scored

0,8

1,3

Conceded

2,0

1,5

Goal diff per game

-1,2

-0,2

This season — Ligue 1 · 26/26 matches

Win Ø 27%

19%

35%

Points per game

0,9

1,3

Over 2.5 Ø 37%

42%

31%

Both score Ø 46%

54%

38%

Average goals

2,2

Scored

0,8

Conceded

1,4

1,3

Goal diff per game

-0,5

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

36% Possession 64%

6 Shots 13

2 Shots on target 3

2 Blocked shots 2

1 Goalkeeper saves 0

3 Corners 7

0 Offside 4

7 Free kicks against 9

3 Yellow cards 1

1 Red cards 0

The table before the match Bastia 19. · Nantes 12. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Monaco	27	19	5	3	+53	62
2	Paris SG	27	18	5	4	+36	59
3	Nice	27	17	8	2	+23	59
4	Lyon	26	15	1	10	+23	46
5	Bordeaux	27	11	9	7	+2	42
6	St Etienne	27	10	9	8	+9	39
7	Marseille	27	11	6	10	+0	39
8	Rennes	27	9	9	9	-5	36
9	Toulouse	27	9	8	10	+3	35
10	Guingamp	27	9	7	11	-4	34
11	Angers	27	9	6	12	-8	33
12	Nantes	26	9	6	11	-13	33
13	Montpellier	27	8	8	11	-6	32
14	Caen	27	9	4	14	-16	31
15	Metz	26	8	6	12	-25	30
16	Lille	27	8	5	14	-9	29
17	Nancy	27	7	7	13	-16	28
18	Dijon	27	6	9	12	-7	27
19	Bastia	26	5	8	13	-14	23
20	Lorient	27	6	4	17	-26	22

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Nice	14	11	3	0	+20	36
2	Monaco	13	11	1	1	+36	34
3	Lyon	14	10	0	4	+19	30
4	Marseille	14	9	3	2	+11	30
5	Paris SG	13	8	5	0	+22	29
6	Rennes	14	8	4	2	+9	28
7	St Etienne	14	7	5	2	+11	26
8	Toulouse	13	8	1	4	+11	25
9	Montpellier	13	7	4	2	+11	25
10	Guingamp	13	7	3	3	+5	24
11	Angers	14	6	5	3	+5	23
12	Caen	13	7	2	4	-3	23
13	Bordeaux	14	6	4	4	-1	22
14	Dijon	13	5	5	3	+6	20
15	Metz	12	5	4	3	-5	19
16	Nantes	14	5	3	6	-9	18
17	Nancy	13	5	2	6	-2	17
18	Lille	14	5	2	7	-3	17
19	Lorient	13	5	2	6	-5	17
20	Bastia	13	3	7	3	+1	16

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Paris SG	14	10	0	4	+14	30
2	Monaco	14	8	4	2	+17	28
3	Nice	13	6	5	2	+3	23
4	Bordeaux	13	5	5	3	+3	20
5	Lyon	12	5	1	6	+4	16
6	Nantes	12	4	3	5	-4	15
7	St Etienne	13	3	4	6	-2	13
8	Lille	13	3	3	7	-6	12
9	Nancy	14	2	5	7	-14	11
10	Metz	14	3	2	9	-20	11
11	Toulouse	14	1	7	6	-8	10
12	Guingamp	14	2	4	8	-9	10
13	Angers	13	3	1	9	-13	10
14	Marseille	13	2	3	8	-11	9
15	Caen	14	2	2	10	-13	8
16	Rennes	13	1	5	7	-14	8
17	Dijon	14	1	4	9	-13	7
18	Bastia	13	2	1	10	-15	7
19	Montpellier	14	1	4	9	-17	7
20	Lorient	14	1	2	11	-21	5

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.