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Ligue 1

Referee: Francois Letexier

Nantes

S S T U T

3–2

Full-time

Marseille

T T S T S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Nantes Marseille

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 50%

50%

Points per game

1,7

1,5

Over 2.5 Ø 34%

67%

Both score Ø 42%

17%

67%

Average goals

1,5

3,5

Scored

0,7

1,8

Conceded

0,8

1,7

Goal diff per game

-0,2

+0,2

This season — Ligue 1 · 23/24 matches

Win Ø 36%

30%

42%

Points per game

1,1

1,5

Over 2.5 Ø 38%

26%

50%

Both score Ø 38%

30%

46%

Average goals

2,0

2,5

Scored

0,7

1,3

Conceded

1,3

1,2

Goal diff per game

-0,7

+0,1

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 2–0

32% Possession 68%

15 Shots 11

7 Shots on target 3

4 Blocked shots 2

1 Goalkeeper saves 4

8 Corners 7

5 Offside 2

14 Free kicks against 9

1 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Nantes 17. · Marseille 6. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Monaco	25	18	4	3	+52	58
2	Paris SG	25	17	4	4	+32	55
3	Nice	25	15	8	2	+21	53
4	Lyon	24	13	1	10	+16	40
5	St Etienne	25	10	9	6	+11	39
6	Marseille	24	10	6	8	+3	36
7	Bordeaux	25	9	9	7	-2	36
8	Guingamp	25	9	7	9	+0	34
9	Toulouse	25	9	6	10	+3	33
10	Rennes	25	8	9	8	-4	33
11	Montpellier	25	7	8	10	-6	29
12	Metz	24	8	5	11	-20	29
13	Dijon	25	6	9	10	-3	27
14	Angers	25	7	6	12	-12	27
15	Nancy	24	7	6	11	-14	27
16	Lille	25	7	5	13	-9	26
17	Nantes	23	7	5	11	-16	26
18	Caen	24	7	4	13	-17	25
19	Bastia	24	5	7	12	-11	22
20	Lorient	25	6	4	15	-24	22

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Monaco	13	11	1	1	+36	34
2	Nice	13	10	3	0	+19	33
3	Paris SG	12	8	4	0	+22	28
4	Marseille	12	8	3	1	+13	27
5	St Etienne	13	7	5	1	+12	26
6	Toulouse	13	8	1	4	+11	25
7	Rennes	13	7	4	2	+8	25
8	Lyon	12	8	0	4	+12	24
9	Guingamp	12	7	3	2	+6	24
10	Montpellier	12	6	4	2	+10	22
11	Dijon	13	5	5	3	+6	20
12	Caen	11	6	2	3	-3	20
13	Bordeaux	13	5	4	4	-4	19
14	Metz	11	5	3	3	-5	18
15	Angers	12	4	5	3	+1	17
16	Lille	13	5	2	6	-2	17
17	Lorient	12	5	2	5	-4	17
18	Nancy	12	5	1	6	-2	16
19	Bastia	12	3	6	3	+1	15
20	Nantes	12	3	3	6	-12	12

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Paris SG	13	9	0	4	+10	27
2	Monaco	12	7	3	2	+16	24
3	Nice	12	5	5	2	+2	20
4	Bordeaux	12	4	5	3	+2	17
5	Lyon	12	5	1	6	+4	16
6	Nantes	11	4	2	5	-4	14
7	St Etienne	12	3	4	5	-1	13
8	Nancy	12	2	5	5	-12	11
9	Metz	13	3	2	8	-15	11
10	Guingamp	13	2	4	7	-6	10
11	Angers	13	3	1	9	-13	10
12	Lille	12	2	3	7	-7	9
13	Marseille	12	2	3	7	-10	9
14	Toulouse	12	1	5	6	-8	8
15	Rennes	12	1	5	6	-12	8
16	Dijon	12	1	4	7	-9	7
17	Bastia	12	2	1	9	-12	7
18	Montpellier	13	1	4	8	-16	7
19	Caen	13	1	2	10	-14	5
20	Lorient	13	1	2	10	-20	5

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.