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Ligue 1

Referee: Amaury Delerue

Bastia

S S T T U

1–1

Full-time

Caen

U S T S T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Bastia Caen

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 33%

33%

Points per game

1,2

Over 2.5 Ø 67%

50%

83%

Both score Ø 59%

50%

67%

Average goals

2,7

4,0

Scored

1,0

2,0

Conceded

1,7

2,0

Goal diff per game

-0,7

+0,0

This season — Ligue 1 · 21/20 matches

Win Ø 27%

24%

30%

Points per game

1,0

1,1

Over 2.5 Ø 42%

38%

45%

Both score Ø 44%

48%

40%

Average goals

2,0

2,9

Scored

0,9

1,2

Conceded

1,2

1,8

Goal diff per game

-0,3

-0,6

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–1

50% Possession 50%

11 Shots 18

3 Shots on target 5

1 Blocked shots 2

4 Goalkeeper saves 2

4 Corners 9

1 Offside 1

11 Free kicks against 14

2 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Bastia 17. · Caen 18. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Monaco	21	15	3	3	+43	48
2	Nice	21	13	7	1	+21	46
3	Paris SG	21	14	3	4	+26	45
4	Lyon	21	12	1	8	+15	37
5	Marseille	22	9	6	7	+2	33
6	Guingamp	21	8	7	6	+4	31
7	St Etienne	21	7	9	5	+3	30
8	Rennes	21	8	5	8	-4	29
9	Bordeaux	21	7	8	6	-5	29
10	Toulouse	21	7	5	9	-1	26
11	Lille	22	7	5	10	-6	26
12	Nantes	21	7	4	10	-14	25
13	Nancy	20	6	6	8	-7	24
14	Montpellier	22	5	8	9	-9	23
15	Metz	20	6	5	9	-16	23
16	Dijon	21	4	9	8	-3	21
17	Bastia	21	5	6	10	-7	21
18	Caen	20	6	3	11	-12	21
19	Angers	21	5	5	11	-10	20
20	Lorient	21	5	3	13	-20	18

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Monaco	11	9	1	1	+28	28
2	Nice	11	8	3	0	+16	27
3	Paris SG	10	7	3	0	+21	24
4	Marseille	11	7	3	1	+11	24
5	Rennes	11	7	2	2	+8	23
6	Lyon	11	7	0	4	+8	21
7	Guingamp	10	6	3	1	+6	21
8	St Etienne	11	5	5	1	+6	20
9	Caen	10	6	2	2	+1	20
10	Montpellier	10	5	4	1	+10	19
11	Toulouse	10	6	1	3	+7	19
12	Bordeaux	11	5	3	3	-1	18
13	Dijon	11	4	5	2	+6	17
14	Lille	11	5	2	4	+0	17
15	Nancy	10	5	1	4	+3	16
16	Lorient	10	5	1	4	-3	16
17	Bastia	11	3	5	3	+1	14
18	Angers	10	3	4	3	+0	13
19	Metz	9	3	3	3	-7	12
20	Nantes	11	3	3	5	-10	12

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Paris SG	11	7	0	4	+5	21
2	Monaco	10	6	2	2	+15	20
3	Nice	10	5	4	1	+5	19
4	Lyon	10	5	1	4	+7	16
5	Nantes	10	4	1	5	-4	13
6	Bordeaux	10	2	5	3	-4	11
7	Metz	11	3	2	6	-9	11
8	Guingamp	11	2	4	5	-2	10
9	St Etienne	10	2	4	4	-3	10
10	Lille	11	2	3	6	-6	9
11	Marseille	11	2	3	6	-9	9
12	Nancy	10	1	5	4	-10	8
13	Bastia	10	2	1	7	-8	7
14	Toulouse	11	1	4	6	-8	7
15	Angers	11	2	1	8	-10	7
16	Rennes	10	1	3	6	-12	6
17	Dijon	10	0	4	6	-9	4
18	Montpellier	12	0	4	8	-19	4
19	Lorient	11	0	2	9	-17	2
20	Caen	10	0	1	9	-13	1

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.