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Ligue 1

Referee: Thomas Leonard

Toulouse

T S T T T

1–1

Full-time

Nantes

U T S S T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Toulouse Nantes

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 34%

17%

50%

Points per game

0,5

1,7

Over 2.5 Ø 34%

50%

17%

Both score Ø 42%

50%

33%

Average goals

2,3

1,5

Scored

0,8

Conceded

1,5

0,7

Goal diff per game

-0,7

+0,2

This season — Ligue 1 · 20/20 matches

Win Ø 38%

25%

50%

Points per game

1,0

1,7

Over 2.5 Ø 38%

40%

35%

Both score Ø 43%

45%

40%

Average goals

2,4

1,9

Scored

0,9

Conceded

1,5

1,0

Goal diff per game

-0,6

-0,1

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

61% Possession 39%

15 Shots 11

3 Shots on target 2

6 Blocked shots 4

1 Goalkeeper saves 2

3 Corners 2

1 Offside 6

17 Free kicks against 16

3 Yellow cards 4

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Toulouse 19. · Nantes 5. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Paris SG	20	17	2	1	+44	53
2	Marseille	21	13	5	3	+21	44
3	Monaco	21	13	4	4	+27	43
4	Lyon	20	12	6	2	+26	42
5	Nantes	20	10	3	7	-1	33
6	Nice	21	9	4	8	-4	31
7	Guingamp	20	8	5	7	-1	29
8	Montpellier	20	6	9	5	+4	27
9	Caen	21	8	3	10	-8	27
10	Dijon	20	7	4	9	-5	25
11	Rennes	20	7	4	9	-5	25
12	Strasbourg	21	6	6	9	-11	24
13	Bordeaux	21	6	5	10	-8	23
14	St Etienne	20	6	5	9	-13	23
15	Lille	20	6	4	10	-12	22
16	Amiens	20	6	3	11	-6	21
17	Troyes	20	6	3	11	-8	21
18	Angers	20	3	10	7	-8	19
19	Toulouse	20	5	4	11	-11	19
20	Metz	20	3	3	14	-21	12

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Paris SG	10	10	0	0	+27	30
2	Monaco	11	8	2	1	+19	26
3	Marseille	10	7	2	1	+16	23
4	Dijon	11	6	2	3	+5	20
5	Lyon	10	5	4	1	+9	19
6	Guingamp	10	5	4	1	+7	19
7	Nantes	10	6	1	3	+3	19
8	Nice	11	6	1	4	+2	19
9	Caen	11	5	2	4	+0	17
10	St Etienne	11	4	4	3	-2	16
11	Strasbourg	10	4	3	3	+2	15
12	Montpellier	11	3	5	3	+2	14
13	Toulouse	9	4	2	3	+2	14
14	Bordeaux	10	4	2	4	-1	14
15	Troyes	11	4	2	5	-1	14
16	Amiens	9	4	1	4	+2	13
17	Rennes	10	4	1	5	-4	13
18	Lille	9	3	3	3	-1	12
19	Angers	9	1	4	4	-7	7
20	Metz	10	1	1	8	-14	4

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Lyon	10	7	2	1	+17	23
2	Paris SG	10	7	2	1	+17	23
3	Marseille	11	6	3	2	+5	21
4	Monaco	10	5	2	3	+8	17
5	Nantes	10	4	2	4	-4	14
6	Montpellier	9	3	4	2	+2	13
7	Rennes	10	3	3	4	-1	12
8	Angers	11	2	6	3	-1	12
9	Nice	10	3	3	4	-6	12
10	Guingamp	10	3	1	6	-8	10
11	Caen	10	3	1	6	-8	10
12	Lille	11	3	1	7	-11	10
13	Bordeaux	11	2	3	6	-7	9
14	Strasbourg	11	2	3	6	-13	9
15	Metz	10	2	2	6	-7	8
16	Amiens	11	2	2	7	-8	8
17	Troyes	9	2	1	6	-7	7
18	St Etienne	9	2	1	6	-11	7
19	Dijon	9	1	2	6	-10	5
20	Toulouse	11	1	2	8	-13	5

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.