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Ligue 1

Referee: Sebastien Moreira

Toulouse

T U T T T

2–0

Full-time

Caen

T U S U T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Toulouse Caen

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 17%

33%

Points per game

0,3

1,3

Over 2.5 Ø 42%

50%

33%

Both score Ø 42%

50%

33%

Average goals

1,8

2,0

Scored

0,5

0,7

Conceded

1,3

Goal diff per game

-0,8

-0,7

This season — Ligue 1 · 16/16 matches

Win Ø 35%

25%

44%

Points per game

1,0

1,4

Over 2.5 Ø 29%

38%

19%

Both score Ø 32%

44%

19%

Average goals

2,3

1,7

Scored

0,9

0,7

Conceded

1,4

1,0

Goal diff per game

-0,6

-0,3

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

49% Possession 51%

10 Shots 11

3 Shots on target 2

2 Blocked shots 2

2 Goalkeeper saves 2

4 Corners 5

2 Offside 5

15 Free kicks against 10

1 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Toulouse 18. · Caen 7. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Paris SG	17	14	2	1	+38	44
2	Lyon	16	9	5	2	+22	32
3	Monaco	16	10	2	4	+21	32
4	Marseille	16	9	5	2	+13	32
5	Nantes	16	8	3	5	-1	27
6	Rennes	16	7	3	6	+2	24
7	Caen	16	7	2	7	-5	23
8	Montpellier	16	5	7	4	+4	22
9	Amiens	16	6	3	7	-2	21
10	Dijon	16	6	3	7	-3	21
11	Strasbourg	17	5	6	6	-5	21
12	Bordeaux	17	5	5	7	-4	20
13	Nice	16	6	2	8	-7	20
14	St Etienne	16	5	5	6	-7	20
15	Guingamp	16	5	4	7	-8	19
16	Troyes	16	5	3	8	-5	18
17	Lille	17	5	3	9	-10	18
18	Toulouse	16	4	4	8	-9	16
19	Angers	16	2	8	6	-8	14
20	Metz	16	1	1	14	-26	4

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Paris SG	9	9	0	0	+25	27
2	Monaco	8	6	1	1	+17	19
3	Nantes	7	5	1	1	+4	16
4	Dijon	9	5	1	3	+2	16
5	Caen	9	5	1	3	+1	16
6	Lyon	8	4	3	1	+7	15
7	Marseille	7	4	2	1	+9	14
8	Bordeaux	8	4	2	2	+3	14
9	Amiens	7	4	1	2	+4	13
10	Montpellier	9	3	4	2	+4	13
11	Rennes	8	4	1	3	+2	13
12	Guingamp	8	3	4	1	+2	13
13	Nice	9	4	1	4	+0	13
14	St Etienne	9	3	4	2	+0	13
15	Strasbourg	8	3	3	2	+3	12
16	Toulouse	7	3	2	2	+1	11
17	Lille	8	3	2	3	-1	11
18	Troyes	9	3	2	4	-1	11
19	Angers	7	0	3	4	-8	3
20	Metz	8	0	0	8	-17	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Marseille	9	5	3	1	+4	18
2	Lyon	8	5	2	1	+15	17
3	Paris SG	8	5	2	1	+13	17
4	Monaco	8	4	1	3	+4	13
5	Rennes	8	3	2	3	+0	11
6	Angers	9	2	5	2	+0	11
7	Nantes	9	3	2	4	-5	11
8	Montpellier	7	2	3	2	+0	9
9	Strasbourg	9	2	3	4	-8	9
10	Amiens	9	2	2	5	-6	8
11	Troyes	7	2	1	4	-4	7
12	Caen	7	2	1	4	-6	7
13	St Etienne	7	2	1	4	-7	7
14	Nice	7	2	1	4	-7	7
15	Lille	9	2	1	6	-9	7
16	Bordeaux	9	1	3	5	-7	6
17	Guingamp	8	2	0	6	-10	6
18	Dijon	7	1	2	4	-5	5
19	Toulouse	9	1	2	6	-10	5
20	Metz	8	1	1	6	-9	4

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.