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Ligue 1

Referee: Benoit Millot

Lille

S S T T S

1–0

Full-time

Toulouse

U T U T T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Lille Toulouse

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 34%

50%

17%

Points per game

1,5

0,8

Over 2.5 Ø 67%

83%

50%

Both score Ø 42%

33%

50%

Average goals

2,8

1,8

Scored

1,3

0,7

Conceded

1,5

1,2

Goal diff per game

-0,2

-0,5

This season — Ligue 1 · 15/15 matches

Win Ø 27%

27%

Points per game

1,0

1,1

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

60%

40%

Both score Ø 37%

27%

47%

Average goals

2,5

2,4

Scored

0,9

Conceded

1,5

Goal diff per game

-0,6

-0,5

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

49% Possession 51%

10 Shots 10

3 Shots on target 3

3 Blocked shots 3

3 Goalkeeper saves 2

3 Corners 6

4 Offside 3

17 Free kicks against 18

2 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Lille 18. · Toulouse 16. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Paris SG	16	13	2	1	+36	41
2	Marseille	15	9	4	2	+13	31
3	Lyon	15	8	5	2	+21	29
4	Monaco	15	9	2	4	+20	29
5	Nantes	15	8	2	5	-1	26
6	Caen	15	7	2	6	-4	23
7	Montpellier	15	5	6	4	+4	21
8	Rennes	15	6	3	6	+0	21
9	Amiens	15	6	3	6	+0	21
10	Dijon	16	6	3	7	-3	21
11	Bordeaux	16	5	5	6	-1	20
12	St Etienne	15	5	4	6	-7	19
13	Troyes	15	5	3	7	-4	18
14	Strasbourg	16	4	6	6	-8	18
15	Nice	15	5	2	8	-9	17
16	Toulouse	15	4	4	7	-8	16
17	Guingamp	15	4	4	7	-9	16
18	Lille	15	4	3	8	-9	15
19	Angers	15	2	8	5	-7	14
20	Metz	15	1	1	13	-24	4

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Paris SG	8	8	0	0	+23	24
2	Monaco	7	5	1	1	+16	16
3	Nantes	7	5	1	1	+4	16
4	Dijon	9	5	1	3	+2	16
5	Caen	8	5	1	2	+2	16
6	Lyon	8	4	3	1	+7	15
7	Marseille	7	4	2	1	+9	14
8	Bordeaux	7	4	2	1	+6	14
9	Amiens	7	4	1	2	+4	13
10	Guingamp	8	3	4	1	+2	13
11	Montpellier	8	3	3	2	+4	12
12	Strasbourg	8	3	3	2	+3	12
13	St Etienne	8	3	3	2	+0	12
14	Toulouse	7	3	2	2	+1	11
15	Troyes	8	3	2	3	+0	11
16	Rennes	7	3	1	3	+0	10
17	Nice	8	3	1	4	-2	10
18	Lille	7	2	2	3	-2	8
19	Angers	7	0	3	4	-8	3
20	Metz	8	0	0	8	-17	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Paris SG	8	5	2	1	+13	17
2	Marseille	8	5	2	1	+4	17
3	Lyon	7	4	2	1	+14	14
4	Monaco	8	4	1	3	+4	13
5	Angers	8	2	5	1	+1	11
6	Rennes	8	3	2	3	+0	11
7	Nantes	8	3	1	4	-5	10
8	Montpellier	7	2	3	2	+0	9
9	Amiens	8	2	2	4	-4	8
10	Troyes	7	2	1	4	-4	7
11	Caen	7	2	1	4	-6	7
12	Lille	8	2	1	5	-7	7
13	St Etienne	7	2	1	4	-7	7
14	Nice	7	2	1	4	-7	7
15	Bordeaux	9	1	3	5	-7	6
16	Strasbourg	8	1	3	4	-11	6
17	Dijon	7	1	2	4	-5	5
18	Toulouse	8	1	2	5	-9	5
19	Metz	7	1	1	5	-7	4
20	Guingamp	7	1	0	6	-11	3

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.