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Ligue 1
Referee: Antony Gautier
Marseille
S T U T S
1–0
Full-time
Montpellier
S S U S U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Marseille Montpellier
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 59%
50%
67%
Points per game
1,7
2,3
Over 2.5 Ø 67%
83%
50%
Both score Ø 83%
83%
83%
Average goals
3,7
2,8
Scored
2,0
1,8
Conceded
1,7
1,0
Goal diff per game
+0,3
+0,8
This season — Ligue 1 · 37/37 matches
Win Ø 44%
46%
41%
Points per game
1,6
1,6
Over 2.5 Ø 53%
59%
46%
Both score Ø 57%
57%
57%
Average goals
3,0
2,5
Scored
1,6
1,4
Conceded
1,4
1,1
Goal diff per game
+0,2
+0,3
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

55% Possession 45%
10 Shots 14
3 Shots on target 4
3 Blocked shots 4
4 Goalkeeper saves 2
7 Corners 13
2 Offside 3
12 Free kicks against 9
2 Yellow cards 0
1 Red cards 0
The table before the match Marseille 6. · Montpellier 5.
# Team K V U T +/− P
1 Paris SG 37 29 4 4 +72 91
2 Lille 37 22 9 6 +37 75
3 Lyon 37 20 9 8 +22 69
4 St Etienne 37 19 8 10 +18 65
5 Montpellier 37 15 14 8 +12 59
6 Marseille 37 17 7 13 +7 58
7 Nimes 37 15 8 14 +0 53
8 Nice 37 14 11 12 -7 53
9 Reims 37 12 16 9 -5 52
10 Rennes 37 12 13 12 +1 49
11 Nantes 37 13 9 15 +1 48
12 Strasbourg 37 10 16 11 +9 46
13 Angers 37 10 15 12 -5 45
14 Bordeaux 37 9 11 17 -9 38
15 Toulouse 37 8 14 15 -21 38
16 Monaco 37 8 12 17 -17 36
17 Amiens 37 8 11 18 -22 35
18 Caen 37 7 12 18 -24 33
19 Dijon 37 8 7 22 -30 31
20 Guingamp 37 5 12 20 -39 27

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Match report

Marseille Montpellier
Morgan Sanson 🟨
11′
T. Hubočan 🔁
↦ M. Sanson
34′
Half-time 1–0
1–0 F. Thauvin
V. Germain
56′
M. Balotelli 🔁
↦ D. Payet
59′
69′
🔁 M. Ristić
↦ A. Oyongo
75′
🔁 P. Škuletić
↦ G. Laborde
80′
🔁 S. Camara
↦ S. Sambia
Mario Balotelli 🟥
87′
Tomáš Hubočan 🟨
89′
C. N'Jie 🔁
↦ F. Thauvin
91′
Full-time 1–0

Line-ups

Marseille

4-3-3
16 Y. Pelé G
2 H. Sakai D
15 D. Ćaleta-Car D
10 D. Payet F
19 Luiz Gustavo D
12 K. Strootman M
5 L. Ocampos D
8 M. Sanson M
27 M. Lopez M
28 V. Germain F
26 F. Thauvin F
Bench (7)
25 T. Hubočan
9 M. Balotelli
14 C. N'Jie
30 S. Mandanda
32 L. Perrin
33 A. Ali Mohamed
7 N. Radonjić

Coach: R. Garcia

Montpellier

3-4-1-2
40 B. Lecomte G
3 D. Congré D
4 Hilton D
5 Pedro Mendes D
8 A. Oyongo M
2 R. Aguilar M
14 D. Le Tallec M
7 P. Lasne M
6 S. Sambia F
11 A. Delort F
10 G. Laborde F
Bench (7)
26 M. Ristić
32 P. Škuletić
19 S. Camara
15 B. Passi
23 F. Píriz
16 D. Bertaud
29 A. Adouyev

Coach: M. Der Zakarian

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

Over/under goals
U1,5 ✓
U2,5 ✓
U3,5 ✓
Both teams to score
BLS ja
BLS nei ✓

Referee

Antony Gautier · 65 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
3,8 / match
Average
⚽ Free kicks
20,0 / match
Below average

🟥 Red cards: 0,31 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.