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Primeira Liga

Referee: Bruno Miguel Duarte Paixao

U. Madeira

U T T T U

0–4

Full-time

Porto

U S U S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

U. Madeira Porto

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 34%

67%

Points per game

0,5

2,3

Over 2.5 Ø 33%

33%

Both score Ø 25%

33%

17%

Average goals

1,5

2,0

Scored

0,5

1,7

Conceded

1,0

0,3

Goal diff per game

-0,5

+1,3

This season — Primeira Liga · 9/10 matches

Win Ø 41%

11%

70%

Points per game

0,8

2,4

Over 2.5 Ø 37%

33%

40%

Both score Ø 32%

33%

30%

Average goals

1,4

2,3

Scored

0,6

1,9

Conceded

0,9

0,4

Goal diff per game

-0,3

+1,5

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–3

31% Possession 69%

10 Shots 11

1 Shots on target 6

4 Blocked shots 4

2 Goalkeeper saves 1

3 Corners 6

2 Offside 1

0 Free kicks against 0

3 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 1

The table before the match U. Madeira 16. · Porto 2. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Sp Lisbon	11	9	2	0	+15	29
2	Porto	10	7	3	0	+15	24
3	Benfica	10	7	0	3	+17	21
4	Sp Braga	11	6	2	3	+11	20
5	Rio Ave	11	5	3	3	+4	18
6	Pacos Ferreira	11	5	2	4	-1	17
7	Vitoria Setubal	11	3	6	2	+2	15
8	Nacional	11	4	2	5	+0	14
9	Maritimo	11	4	2	5	-4	14
10	Estoril	11	4	2	5	-5	14
11	Arouca	11	2	7	2	+0	13
12	Guimaraes	11	3	4	4	-6	13
13	Belenenses	11	3	4	4	-11	13
14	Moreirense	11	2	4	5	-6	10
15	Boavista	11	2	3	6	-7	9
16	U. Madeira	9	1	4	4	-3	7
17	Academica	11	1	4	6	-11	7
18	Tondela	11	1	2	8	-10	5

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Porto	6	5	1	0	+12	16
2	Benfica	6	5	0	1	+13	15
3	Sp Braga	6	4	1	1	+11	13
4	Sp Lisbon	5	4	1	0	+7	13
5	Rio Ave	6	4	0	2	+2	12
6	Nacional	5	3	2	0	+5	11
7	Belenenses	5	3	2	0	+4	11
8	Estoril	5	3	2	0	+4	11
9	Maritimo	5	3	1	1	+3	10
10	Pacos Ferreira	6	3	1	2	+1	10
11	Vitoria Setubal	6	1	5	0	+1	8
12	U. Madeira	4	1	2	1	+0	5
13	Guimaraes	5	1	2	2	-1	5
14	Arouca	5	1	2	2	-2	5
15	Moreirense	5	1	2	2	-2	5
16	Academica	6	1	2	3	-7	5
17	Boavista	5	1	1	3	-2	4
18	Tondela	6	1	1	4	-6	4

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Sp Lisbon	6	5	1	0	+8	16
2	Porto	4	2	2	0	+3	8
3	Arouca	6	1	5	0	+2	8
4	Guimaraes	6	2	2	2	-5	8
5	Vitoria Setubal	5	2	1	2	+1	7
6	Sp Braga	5	2	1	2	+0	7
7	Pacos Ferreira	5	2	1	2	-2	7
8	Benfica	4	2	0	2	+4	6
9	Rio Ave	5	1	3	1	+2	6
10	Moreirense	6	1	2	3	-4	5
11	Boavista	6	1	2	3	-5	5
12	Maritimo	6	1	1	4	-7	4
13	Nacional	6	1	0	5	-5	3
14	Estoril	6	1	0	5	-9	3
15	U. Madeira	5	0	2	3	-3	2
16	Academica	5	0	2	3	-4	2
17	Belenenses	6	0	2	4	-15	2
18	Tondela	5	0	1	4	-4	1

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.