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Primeira Liga

Referee: Bruno Alexandre Da Silva Esteves

U. Madeira

S T U U

0–0

Full-time

Arouca

S S U T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

U. Madeira Arouca

Last 6 — all competitions · 4/4 matches

Win Ø 38%

25%

50%

Points per game

1,3

1,8

Over 2.5 Ø 25%

25%

Both score Ø 38%

25%

50%

Average goals

1,0

2,3

Scored

0,5

1,3

Conceded

0,5

1,0

Goal diff per game

+0,0

+0,3

This season — Primeira Liga · 4/4 matches

Win Ø 38%

25%

50%

Points per game

1,3

1,8

Over 2.5 Ø 25%

25%

Both score Ø 38%

25%

50%

Average goals

1,0

2,3

Scored

0,5

1,3

Conceded

0,5

1,0

Goal diff per game

+0,0

+0,3

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

0 Free kicks against 0

2 Yellow cards 4

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match U. Madeira 13. · Arouca 7. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Porto	4	3	1	0	+7	10
2	Sp Lisbon	4	3	1	0	+4	10
3	Benfica	4	3	0	1	+10	9
4	Estoril	5	3	0	2	-2	9
5	Rio Ave	5	2	2	1	+3	8
6	Pacos Ferreira	5	2	2	1	-1	8
7	Arouca	4	2	1	1	+1	7
8	Sp Braga	4	2	0	2	+3	6
9	Vitoria Setubal	5	1	3	1	+1	6
10	Nacional	4	2	0	2	+1	6
11	Guimaraes	5	1	3	1	-2	6
12	Maritimo	4	1	2	1	+2	5
13	U. Madeira	4	1	2	1	+0	5
14	Boavista	4	1	1	2	-4	4
15	Tondela	5	1	0	4	-3	3
16	Belenenses	4	0	3	1	-6	3
17	Moreirense	4	0	1	3	-5	1
18	Academica	4	0	0	4	-9	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Benfica	3	3	0	0	+11	9
2	Sp Braga	2	2	0	0	+5	6
3	Porto	2	2	0	0	+5	6
4	Nacional	2	2	0	0	+3	6
5	Estoril	2	2	0	0	+3	6
6	Maritimo	2	1	1	0	+3	4
7	U. Madeira	2	1	1	0	+1	4
8	Guimaraes	2	1	1	0	+1	4
9	Pacos Ferreira	3	1	1	1	-2	4
10	Vitoria Setubal	3	0	3	0	+0	3
11	Rio Ave	2	1	0	1	+0	3
12	Boavista	2	1	0	1	+0	3
13	Tondela	3	1	0	2	-1	3
14	Arouca	2	1	0	1	-1	3
15	Belenenses	2	0	2	0	+0	2
16	Sp Lisbon	1	0	1	0	+0	1
17	Moreirense	2	0	1	1	-2	1
18	Academica	2	0	0	2	-6	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Sp Lisbon	3	3	0	0	+4	9
2	Rio Ave	3	1	2	0	+3	5
3	Porto	2	1	1	0	+2	4
4	Arouca	2	1	1	0	+2	4
5	Pacos Ferreira	2	1	1	0	+1	4
6	Vitoria Setubal	2	1	0	1	+1	3
7	Estoril	3	1	0	2	-5	3
8	Guimaraes	3	0	2	1	-3	2
9	Maritimo	2	0	1	1	-1	1
10	U. Madeira	2	0	1	1	-1	1
11	Boavista	2	0	1	1	-4	1
12	Belenenses	2	0	1	1	-6	1
13	Benfica	1	0	0	1	-1	0
14	Nacional	2	0	0	2	-2	0
15	Sp Braga	2	0	0	2	-2	0
16	Tondela	2	0	0	2	-2	0
17	Moreirense	2	0	0	2	-3	0
18	Academica	2	0	0	2	-3	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.