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Primeira Liga

Referee: Luis Miguel Rodrigues Ferreira

Sp Lisbon

S T S S S

2–2

Full-time

Tondela

T T S T T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Sp Lisbon Tondela

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 50%

83%

17%

Points per game

2,5

0,5

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

50%

Both score Ø 42%

33%

50%

Average goals

3,2

2,8

Scored

2,5

0,8

Conceded

0,7

2,0

Goal diff per game

+1,8

-1,2

This season — Primeira Liga · 17/17 matches

Win Ø 47%

82%

12%

Points per game

2,6

0,5

Over 2.5 Ø 41%

47%

35%

Both score Ø 41%

41%

Average goals

2,6

2,2

Scored

2,1

0,6

Conceded

0,5

1,6

Goal diff per game

+1,5

-1,0

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

62% Possession 38%

12 Shots 7

5 Shots on target 5

1 Blocked shots 0

3 Goalkeeper saves 2

5 Corners 3

3 Offside 4

0 Free kicks against 0

3 Yellow cards 4

1 Red cards 0

The table before the match Sp Lisbon 1. · Tondela 18. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Sp Lisbon	17	14	2	1	+26	44
2	Benfica	17	13	1	3	+34	40
3	Porto	17	12	4	1	+26	40
4	Sp Braga	17	8	5	4	+14	29
5	Pacos Ferreira	17	8	4	5	+7	28
6	Rio Ave	17	7	4	6	+2	25
7	Arouca	17	5	9	3	+3	24
8	Guimaraes	17	6	5	6	-4	23
9	Vitoria Setubal	17	5	7	5	-2	22
10	Maritimo	17	6	3	8	-9	21
11	Estoril	17	5	5	7	-5	20
12	Belenenses	17	4	6	7	-16	18
13	Nacional	17	4	5	8	-6	17
14	Moreirense	17	4	5	8	-8	17
15	U. Madeira	17	4	5	8	-12	17
16	Academica	17	4	4	9	-15	16
17	Boavista	17	2	4	11	-18	10
18	Tondela	17	2	2	13	-17	8

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Benfica	9	8	0	1	+24	24
2	Porto	9	7	2	0	+15	23
3	Sp Lisbon	8	7	1	0	+12	22
4	Rio Ave	9	6	0	3	+4	18
5	Sp Braga	8	5	2	1	+14	17
6	Pacos Ferreira	9	5	2	2	+8	17
7	Estoril	8	4	3	1	+5	15
8	Belenenses	8	4	3	1	+2	15
9	U. Madeira	9	4	3	2	+0	15
10	Maritimo	8	4	2	2	+6	14
11	Arouca	8	4	2	2	+3	14
12	Academica	9	4	2	3	-3	14
13	Nacional	8	3	3	2	+1	12
14	Guimaraes	9	2	3	4	-1	9
15	Moreirense	8	2	3	3	-1	9
16	Vitoria Setubal	9	1	6	2	-7	9
17	Boavista	8	1	2	5	-10	5
18	Tondela	9	1	1	7	-11	4

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Sp Lisbon	9	7	1	1	+14	22
2	Porto	8	5	2	1	+11	17
3	Benfica	8	5	1	2	+10	16
4	Guimaraes	8	4	2	2	-3	14
5	Vitoria Setubal	8	4	1	3	+5	13
6	Sp Braga	9	3	3	3	+0	12
7	Pacos Ferreira	8	3	2	3	-1	11
8	Arouca	9	1	7	1	+0	10
9	Moreirense	9	2	2	5	-7	8
10	Rio Ave	8	1	4	3	-2	7
11	Maritimo	9	2	1	6	-15	7
12	Nacional	9	1	2	6	-7	5
13	Boavista	9	1	2	6	-8	5
14	Estoril	9	1	2	6	-10	5
15	Tondela	8	1	1	6	-6	4
16	Belenenses	9	0	3	6	-18	3
17	U. Madeira	8	0	2	6	-12	2
18	Academica	8	0	2	6	-12	2

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.