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Primeira Liga

Referee: Hugo Miguel

Sp Lisbon

S S S S T

2–0

Full-time

Porto

S S S S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Sp Lisbon Porto

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 92%

83%

100%

Points per game

2,5

3,0

Over 2.5 Ø 42%

17%

67%

Both score Ø 34%

17%

50%

Average goals

1,5

2,8

Scored

1,2

2,3

Conceded

0,3

0,5

Goal diff per game

+0,8

+1,8

This season — Primeira Liga · 14/14 matches

Win Ø 79%

79%

Points per game

2,5

2,6

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

43%

57%

Both score Ø 43%

43%

Average goals

2,2

2,6

Scored

1,7

2,1

Conceded

0,5

Goal diff per game

+1,2

+1,6

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

46% Possession 54%

16 Shots 10

4 Shots on target 2

1 Blocked shots 5

2 Goalkeeper saves 2

8 Corners 5

2 Offside 3

0 Free kicks against 0

4 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Sp Lisbon 2. · Porto 1. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Porto	14	11	3	0	+23	36
2	Sp Lisbon	14	11	2	1	+17	35
3	Benfica	15	11	1	3	+25	34
4	Sp Braga	15	7	5	3	+12	26
5	Vitoria Setubal	15	5	7	3	+5	22
6	Pacos Ferreira	15	6	4	5	+4	22
7	Rio Ave	14	6	3	5	+2	21
8	Arouca	15	4	8	3	+2	20
9	Guimaraes	15	5	4	6	-5	19
10	Maritimo	15	5	3	7	-7	18
11	Moreirense	15	4	5	6	-3	17
12	Estoril	15	4	5	6	-6	17
13	Belenenses	15	4	5	6	-14	17
14	Nacional	15	4	4	7	-3	16
15	U. Madeira	15	3	5	7	-12	14
16	Academica	15	3	4	8	-13	13
17	Boavista	15	2	4	9	-12	10
18	Tondela	14	1	2	11	-15	5

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Porto	8	7	1	0	+15	22
2	Benfica	8	7	0	1	+18	21
3	Sp Lisbon	6	5	1	0	+9	16
4	Rio Ave	7	5	0	2	+4	15
5	Sp Braga	7	4	2	1	+11	14
6	Pacos Ferreira	8	4	2	2	+7	14
7	Belenenses	7	4	2	1	+2	14
8	Nacional	7	3	3	1	+4	12
9	Estoril	7	3	3	1	+3	12
10	U. Madeira	8	3	3	2	-1	12
11	Arouca	7	3	2	2	+2	11
12	Maritimo	7	3	2	2	+2	11
13	Academica	8	3	2	3	-4	11
14	Moreirense	7	2	3	2	+0	9
15	Vitoria Setubal	8	1	6	1	-1	9
16	Guimaraes	8	2	2	4	-1	8
17	Boavista	7	1	2	4	-5	5
18	Tondela	8	1	1	6	-9	4

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Sp Lisbon	8	6	1	1	+8	19
2	Porto	6	4	2	0	+8	14
3	Benfica	7	4	1	2	+7	13
4	Vitoria Setubal	7	4	1	2	+6	13
5	Sp Braga	8	3	3	2	+1	12
6	Guimaraes	7	3	2	2	-4	11
7	Arouca	8	1	6	1	+0	9
8	Moreirense	8	2	2	4	-3	8
9	Pacos Ferreira	7	2	2	3	-3	8
10	Maritimo	8	2	1	5	-9	7
11	Rio Ave	7	1	3	3	-2	6
12	Boavista	8	1	2	5	-7	5
13	Estoril	8	1	2	5	-9	5
14	Nacional	8	1	1	6	-7	4
15	Belenenses	8	0	3	5	-16	3
16	Academica	7	0	2	5	-9	2
17	U. Madeira	7	0	2	5	-11	2
18	Tondela	6	0	1	5	-6	1

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.