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Primeira Liga

Referee: Vasco Santos

U. Madeira

U T S T U

1–0

Full-time

Sp Lisbon

S S S S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

U. Madeira Sp Lisbon

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 59%

17%

100%

Points per game

0,8

3,0

Over 2.5 Ø 42%

50%

33%

Both score Ø 17%

17%

Average goals

2,8

1,8

Scored

0,7

1,7

Conceded

2,2

0,2

Goal diff per game

-1,5

+1,5

This season — Primeira Liga · 13/13 matches

Win Ø 50%

15%

85%

Points per game

0,8

2,7

Over 2.5 Ø 42%

38%

46%

Both score Ø 35%

23%

46%

Average goals

1,9

2,3

Scored

0,5

1,8

Conceded

1,4

0,5

Goal diff per game

-0,8

+1,4

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

25% Possession 75%

4 Shots 24

2 Shots on target 5

1 Blocked shots 4

5 Goalkeeper saves 1

0 Corners 13

3 Offside 3

0 Free kicks against 0

2 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match U. Madeira 15. · Sp Lisbon 1. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Sp Lisbon	13	11	2	0	+18	35
2	Porto	13	10	3	0	+21	33
3	Benfica	14	10	1	3	+24	31
4	Sp Braga	13	7	3	3	+12	24
5	Vitoria Setubal	14	5	6	3	+5	21
6	Rio Ave	14	6	3	5	+2	21
7	Pacos Ferreira	13	6	2	5	+4	20
8	Arouca	14	4	7	3	+2	19
9	Guimaraes	14	5	4	5	-4	19
10	Maritimo	14	5	2	7	-7	17
11	Estoril	14	4	4	6	-6	16
12	Nacional	14	4	3	7	-3	15
13	Moreirense	14	3	5	6	-6	14
14	Belenenses	13	3	4	6	-15	13
15	U. Madeira	13	2	5	6	-11	11
16	Boavista	13	2	4	7	-8	10
17	Academica	13	2	4	7	-13	10
18	Tondela	14	1	2	11	-15	5

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Benfica	8	7	0	1	+18	21
2	Porto	7	6	1	0	+13	19
3	Sp Lisbon	6	5	1	0	+9	16
4	Rio Ave	7	5	0	2	+4	15
5	Sp Braga	6	4	1	1	+11	13
6	Pacos Ferreira	7	4	1	2	+7	13
7	Estoril	7	3	3	1	+3	12
8	Nacional	6	3	2	1	+4	11
9	Arouca	7	3	2	2	+2	11
10	Belenenses	6	3	2	1	+1	11
11	Maritimo	6	3	1	2	+2	10
12	Moreirense	7	2	3	2	+0	9
13	U. Madeira	7	2	3	2	-2	9
14	Guimaraes	7	2	2	3	+0	8
15	Vitoria Setubal	7	1	5	1	-1	8
16	Academica	7	2	2	3	-6	8
17	Boavista	6	1	2	3	-2	5
18	Tondela	8	1	1	6	-9	4

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Sp Lisbon	7	6	1	0	+9	19
2	Porto	6	4	2	0	+8	14
3	Vitoria Setubal	7	4	1	2	+6	13
4	Sp Braga	7	3	2	2	+1	11
5	Guimaraes	7	3	2	2	-4	11
6	Benfica	6	3	1	2	+6	10
7	Arouca	7	1	5	1	+0	8
8	Pacos Ferreira	6	2	1	3	-3	7
9	Maritimo	8	2	1	5	-9	7
10	Rio Ave	7	1	3	3	-2	6
11	Boavista	7	1	2	4	-6	5
12	Moreirense	7	1	2	4	-6	5
13	Nacional	8	1	1	6	-7	4
14	Estoril	7	1	1	5	-9	4
15	Academica	6	0	2	4	-7	2
16	U. Madeira	6	0	2	4	-9	2
17	Belenenses	7	0	2	5	-16	2
18	Tondela	6	0	1	5	-6	1

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.