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Primeira Liga

Referee: Andre Moreira

Academica

T S T S T

2–1

Full-time

Tondela

T T T S T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Academica Tondela

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 25%

33%

17%

Points per game

1,2

0,5

Over 2.5 Ø 58%

83%

33%

Both score Ø 50%

67%

33%

Average goals

3,8

2,5

Scored

1,5

0,7

Conceded

2,3

1,8

Goal diff per game

-0,8

-1,2

This season — Primeira Liga · 16/16 matches

Win Ø 16%

19%

13%

Points per game

0,8

0,5

Over 2.5 Ø 38%

44%

31%

Both score Ø 44%

50%

38%

Average goals

2,8

2,1

Scored

0,9

0,6

Conceded

1,9

1,6

Goal diff per game

-1,0

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

58% Possession 42%

11 Shots 5

8 Shots on target 2

1 Goalkeeper saves 5

10 Corners 3

4 Offside 2

21 Free kicks against 18

0 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Academica 16. · Tondela 18. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Sp Lisbon	16	13	2	1	+25	41
2	Benfica	16	12	1	3	+31	37
3	Porto	16	11	4	1	+21	37
4	Sp Braga	16	8	5	3	+15	29
5	Pacos Ferreira	16	7	4	5	+6	25
6	Arouca	17	5	9	3	+3	24
7	Guimaraes	17	6	5	6	-4	23
8	Rio Ave	16	6	4	6	+1	22
9	Vitoria Setubal	16	5	7	4	-1	22
10	Maritimo	16	5	3	8	-13	18
11	Belenenses	16	4	6	6	-14	18
12	Nacional	16	4	5	7	-3	17
13	Moreirense	16	4	5	7	-4	17
14	Estoril	16	4	5	7	-7	17
15	U. Madeira	16	4	5	7	-11	17
16	Academica	16	3	4	9	-16	13
17	Boavista	16	2	4	10	-13	10
18	Tondela	16	2	2	12	-16	8

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Benfica	9	8	0	1	+24	24
2	Porto	9	7	2	0	+15	23
3	Sp Lisbon	7	6	1	0	+11	19
4	Sp Braga	8	5	2	1	+14	17
5	Rio Ave	8	5	0	3	+3	15
6	Belenenses	8	4	3	1	+2	15
7	U. Madeira	9	4	3	2	+0	15
8	Pacos Ferreira	8	4	2	2	+7	14
9	Arouca	8	4	2	2	+3	14
10	Nacional	7	3	3	1	+4	12
11	Estoril	7	3	3	1	+3	12
12	Maritimo	7	3	2	2	+2	11
13	Academica	8	3	2	3	-4	11
14	Guimaraes	9	2	3	4	-1	9
15	Moreirense	8	2	3	3	-1	9
16	Vitoria Setubal	9	1	6	2	-7	9
17	Boavista	7	1	2	4	-5	5
18	Tondela	9	1	1	7	-11	4

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Sp Lisbon	9	7	1	1	+14	22
2	Porto	7	4	2	1	+6	14
3	Guimaraes	8	4	2	2	-3	14
4	Benfica	7	4	1	2	+7	13
5	Vitoria Setubal	7	4	1	2	+6	13
6	Sp Braga	8	3	3	2	+1	12
7	Pacos Ferreira	8	3	2	3	-1	11
8	Arouca	9	1	7	1	+0	10
9	Moreirense	8	2	2	4	-3	8
10	Rio Ave	8	1	4	3	-2	7
11	Maritimo	9	2	1	6	-15	7
12	Nacional	9	1	2	6	-7	5
13	Boavista	9	1	2	6	-8	5
14	Estoril	9	1	2	6	-10	5
15	Tondela	7	1	1	5	-5	4
16	Belenenses	8	0	3	5	-16	3
17	U. Madeira	7	0	2	5	-11	2
18	Academica	8	0	2	6	-12	2

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.