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Primeira Liga

Referee: Luis Miguel Rodrigues Ferreira

Porto

T S S T S

3–2

Full-time

Moreirense

S T T S T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Porto Moreirense

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 50%

67%

33%

Points per game

2,0

1,0

Over 2.5 Ø 75%

67%

83%

Both score Ø 67%

50%

83%

Average goals

2,8

4,0

Scored

2,0

1,3

Conceded

0,8

2,7

Goal diff per game

+1,2

-1,3

This season — Primeira Liga · 22/22 matches

Win Ø 48%

68%

27%

Points per game

2,2

1,0

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

55%

45%

Both score Ø 48%

45%

50%

Average goals

2,6

2,9

Scored

2,0

1,2

Conceded

0,7

1,7

Goal diff per game

+1,3

-0,5

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–2

71% Possession 29%

28 Shots 9

11 Shots on target 7

7 Blocked shots 1

5 Goalkeeper saves 8

8 Corners 3

4 Offside 2

0 Free kicks against 0

1 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Porto 3. · Moreirense 14. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Benfica	23	18	1	4	+46	55
2	Sp Lisbon	22	17	4	1	+33	55
3	Porto	22	15	4	3	+28	49
4	Sp Braga	22	12	6	4	+23	42
5	Arouca	23	8	10	5	+6	34
6	Rio Ave	23	9	6	8	+0	33
7	Guimaraes	22	8	8	6	-1	32
8	Pacos Ferreira	23	8	7	8	+2	31
9	Vitoria Setubal	23	6	10	7	-6	28
10	Belenenses	23	7	7	9	-20	28
11	Estoril	23	7	6	10	-7	27
12	Maritimo	23	7	4	12	-13	25
13	U. Madeira	23	6	6	11	-14	24
14	Moreirense	22	6	5	11	-12	23
15	Nacional	23	5	7	11	-12	22
16	Boavista	22	5	6	11	-12	21
17	Academica	23	4	7	12	-19	19
18	Tondela	23	2	4	17	-22	10

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Benfica	11	9	0	2	+25	27
2	Sp Lisbon	11	8	3	0	+13	27
3	Porto	11	8	2	1	+15	26
4	Sp Braga	10	7	2	1	+20	23
5	Rio Ave	12	7	1	4	+4	22
6	U. Madeira	12	5	4	3	+2	19
7	Arouca	11	5	3	3	+5	18
8	Estoril	11	5	3	3	+3	18
9	Pacos Ferreira	12	5	2	5	+3	17
10	Guimaraes	12	4	4	4	+2	16
11	Academica	12	4	4	4	-5	16
12	Belenenses	11	4	4	3	-5	16
13	Nacional	11	4	3	4	-2	15
14	Maritimo	11	4	2	5	+2	14
15	Vitoria Setubal	12	2	8	2	-6	14
16	Boavista	11	2	4	5	-6	10
17	Moreirense	11	2	3	6	-7	9
18	Tondela	12	1	2	9	-13	5

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Benfica	12	9	1	2	+21	28
2	Sp Lisbon	11	9	1	1	+20	28
3	Porto	11	7	2	2	+13	23
4	Sp Braga	12	5	4	3	+3	19
5	Arouca	12	3	7	2	+1	16
6	Guimaraes	10	4	4	2	-3	16
7	Vitoria Setubal	11	4	2	5	+0	14
8	Pacos Ferreira	11	3	5	3	-1	14
9	Moreirense	11	4	2	5	-5	14
10	Belenenses	12	3	3	6	-15	12
11	Rio Ave	11	2	5	4	-4	11
12	Boavista	11	3	2	6	-6	11
13	Maritimo	12	3	2	7	-15	11
14	Estoril	12	2	3	7	-10	9
15	Nacional	12	1	4	7	-10	7
16	Tondela	11	1	2	8	-9	5
17	U. Madeira	11	1	2	8	-16	5
18	Academica	11	0	3	8	-14	3

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.