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Serie A

Referee: Celi Domenico

Atalanta

U U T U U

2–3

Full-time

Fiorentina

S U S U S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Atalanta Fiorentina

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 25%

50%

Points per game

0,8

1,8

Over 2.5 Ø 25%

17%

33%

Both score Ø 50%

50%

Average goals

1,2

2,0

Scored

0,5

1,2

Conceded

0,7

0,8

Goal diff per game

-0,2

+0,3

This season — Serie A · 25/25 matches

Win Ø 44%

28%

60%

Points per game

1,2

2,0

Over 2.5 Ø 46%

40%

52%

Both score Ø 44%

36%

52%

Average goals

2,0

2,7

Scored

0,9

1,8

Conceded

1,1

1,0

Goal diff per game

-0,2

+0,8

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

48% Possession 52%

13 Shots 14

5 Shots on target 8

4 Blocked shots 2

5 Goalkeeper saves 3

4 Corners 2

1 Offside 3

0 Free kicks against 0

5 Yellow cards 2

1 Red cards 0

The table before the match Atalanta 13. · Fiorentina 3. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Juventus	26	18	4	4	+31	58
2	Napoli	25	17	5	3	+33	56
3	Fiorentina	25	15	4	6	+20	49
4	Inter	26	14	6	6	+11	48
5	Roma	25	13	8	4	+20	47
6	Milan	25	12	7	6	+10	43
7	Lazio	25	10	6	9	+0	36
8	Sassuolo	25	8	11	6	+0	35
9	Bologna	26	10	4	12	-2	34
10	Empoli	25	9	7	9	-4	34
11	Torino	25	8	7	10	+0	31
12	Chievo	26	8	7	11	-5	31
13	Atalanta	25	7	8	10	-4	29
14	Udinese	25	7	6	12	-17	27
15	Palermo	25	7	5	13	-15	26
16	Genoa	25	6	7	12	-5	25
17	Sampdoria	26	6	7	13	-9	25
18	Frosinone	25	6	4	15	-25	22
19	Carpi	25	4	7	14	-20	19
20	Verona	26	2	12	12	-19	18

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Napoli	12	10	2	0	+19	32
2	Fiorentina	13	10	1	2	+17	31
3	Juventus	12	9	2	1	+13	29
4	Roma	12	8	3	1	+14	27
5	Milan	13	8	3	2	+8	27
6	Inter	13	8	2	3	+7	26
7	Lazio	13	7	3	3	+10	24
8	Torino	13	5	4	4	+5	19
9	Atalanta	12	5	4	3	+5	19
10	Sampdoria	13	5	4	4	+4	19
11	Genoa	12	5	3	4	+4	18
12	Sassuolo	12	4	6	2	+0	18
13	Frosinone	13	5	2	6	-6	17
14	Bologna	14	4	4	6	+0	16
15	Empoli	12	4	3	5	+0	15
16	Chievo	12	3	5	4	-1	14
17	Palermo	13	4	2	7	-5	14
18	Carpi	13	3	4	6	-4	13
19	Verona	14	2	6	6	-6	12
20	Udinese	12	3	3	6	-9	12

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Juventus	14	9	2	3	+18	29
2	Napoli	13	7	3	3	+14	24
3	Inter	13	6	4	3	+4	22
4	Roma	13	5	5	3	+6	20
5	Empoli	13	5	4	4	-4	19
6	Fiorentina	12	5	3	4	+3	18
7	Bologna	12	6	0	6	-2	18
8	Sassuolo	13	4	5	4	+0	17
9	Chievo	14	5	2	7	-4	17
10	Milan	12	4	4	4	+2	16
11	Udinese	13	4	3	6	-8	15
12	Torino	12	3	3	6	-5	12
13	Lazio	12	3	3	6	-10	12
14	Palermo	12	3	3	6	-10	12
15	Atalanta	13	2	4	7	-9	10
16	Genoa	13	1	4	8	-9	7
17	Sampdoria	13	1	3	9	-13	6
18	Verona	12	0	6	6	-13	6
19	Carpi	12	1	3	8	-16	6
20	Frosinone	12	1	2	9	-19	5

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.