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Primeira Liga

Referee: Bruno Alexandre Da Silva Esteves

Nacional

S S S S T

4–1

Full-time

Estoril

S S T S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Nacional Estoril

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 67%

67%

Points per game

2,2

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

33%

67%

Both score Ø 42%

33%

50%

Average goals

2,3

2,7

Scored

1,5

2,0

Conceded

0,8

0,7

Goal diff per game

+0,7

+1,3

This season — Primeira Liga · 28/28 matches

Win Ø 36%

32%

39%

Points per game

1,2

1,4

Over 2.5 Ø 45%

50%

39%

Both score Ø 48%

50%

46%

Average goals

2,6

2,3

Scored

1,2

Conceded

1,5

1,1

Goal diff per game

-0,3

+0,0

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

52% Possession 48%

9 Shots 8

5 Shots on target 4

6 Goalkeeper saves 1

2 Corners 13

3 Offside 0

12 Free kicks against 11

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Nacional 10. · Estoril 7. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Benfica	29	24	1	4	+58	73
2	Sp Lisbon	29	22	5	2	+44	71
3	Porto	28	19	4	5	+29	61
4	Sp Braga	28	14	8	6	+20	50
5	Arouca	29	11	12	6	+5	45
6	Rio Ave	28	12	6	10	+0	42
7	Estoril	28	11	6	11	+1	39
8	Pacos Ferreira	28	9	9	10	-1	36
9	Guimaraes	28	8	11	9	-5	35
10	Nacional	28	9	7	12	-8	34
11	Belenenses	28	8	9	11	-21	33
12	Maritimo	29	9	5	15	-16	32
13	Vitoria Setubal	28	6	11	11	-12	29
14	Moreirense	28	7	7	14	-14	28
15	Boavista	29	6	8	15	-14	26
16	U. Madeira	28	6	8	14	-19	26
17	Academica	29	5	8	16	-23	23
18	Tondela	28	4	5	19	-24	17

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Benfica	14	12	0	2	+34	36
2	Sp Lisbon	15	11	3	1	+20	36
3	Porto	14	10	2	2	+16	32
4	Sp Braga	13	9	3	1	+24	30
5	Arouca	14	7	4	3	+7	25
6	Rio Ave	14	8	1	5	+3	25
7	Estoril	14	7	3	4	+6	24
8	Nacional	14	7	3	4	+3	24
9	U. Madeira	14	5	6	3	+2	21
10	Maritimo	14	6	2	6	+2	20
11	Pacos Ferreira	14	5	4	5	+3	19
12	Belenenses	14	5	4	5	-6	19
13	Academica	15	5	4	6	-7	19
14	Guimaraes	15	4	6	5	+1	18
15	Vitoria Setubal	14	2	8	4	-8	14
16	Boavista	15	2	5	8	-9	11
17	Moreirense	14	2	4	8	-9	10
18	Tondela	14	1	3	10	-14	6

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Benfica	15	12	1	2	+24	37
2	Sp Lisbon	14	11	2	1	+24	35
3	Porto	14	9	2	3	+13	29
4	Arouca	15	4	8	3	-2	20
5	Sp Braga	15	5	5	5	-4	20
6	Moreirense	14	5	3	6	-5	18
7	Rio Ave	14	4	5	5	-3	17
8	Pacos Ferreira	14	4	5	5	-4	17
9	Guimaraes	13	4	5	4	-6	17
10	Vitoria Setubal	14	4	3	7	-4	15
11	Boavista	14	4	3	7	-5	15
12	Estoril	14	4	3	7	-5	15
13	Belenenses	14	3	5	6	-15	14
14	Maritimo	15	3	3	9	-18	12
15	Tondela	14	3	2	9	-10	11
16	Nacional	14	2	4	8	-11	10
17	U. Madeira	14	1	2	11	-21	5
18	Academica	14	0	4	10	-16	4

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.