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Primeira Liga

Referee: Tiago Martins

Nacional

T U T T T

0–1

Full-time

Chaves

U U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Nacional Chaves

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/2 matches

Win Ø 0%

Points per game

0,2

1,0

Over 2.5 Ø 59%

67%

50%

Both score Ø 75%

50%

100%

Average goals

3,2

3,0

Scored

0,7

1,5

Conceded

2,5

1,5

Goal diff per game

-1,8

+0,0

This season — Primeira Liga · 2/2 matches

Win Ø 0%

Points per game

0,0

1,0

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

50%

Both score Ø 75%

50%

100%

Average goals

3,0

Scored

0,5

1,5

Conceded

2,5

1,5

Goal diff per game

-2,0

+0,0

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

66% Possession 34%

17 Shots 11

7 Shots on target 3

1 Blocked shots 2

2 Goalkeeper saves 7

10 Corners 1

4 Offside 0

12 Free kicks against 16

4 Yellow cards 3

1 Red cards 0

The table before the match Nacional 17. · Chaves 14. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Sp Lisbon	3	3	0	0	+4	9
2	Benfica	3	2	1	0	+4	7
3	Vitoria Setubal	3	2	1	0	+4	7
4	Sp Braga	3	2	1	0	+3	7
5	Guimaraes	3	2	0	1	+3	6
6	Porto	3	2	0	1	+2	6
7	Boavista	3	1	2	0	+2	5
8	Moreirense	3	1	1	1	+2	4
9	Rio Ave	3	1	1	1	-1	4
10	Belenenses	3	1	1	1	-1	4
11	Arouca	3	1	0	2	-2	3
12	Feirense	3	1	0	2	-2	3
13	Maritimo	3	1	0	2	-3	3
14	Chaves	2	0	2	0	+0	2
15	Pacos Ferreira	3	0	1	2	-3	1
16	Tondela	3	0	1	2	-3	1
17	Nacional	2	0	0	2	-4	0
18	Estoril	3	0	0	3	-5	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Vitoria Setubal	2	2	0	0	+4	6
2	Sp Lisbon	2	2	0	0	+3	6
3	Boavista	2	1	1	0	+2	4
4	Arouca	1	1	0	0	+2	3
5	Guimaraes	2	1	0	1	+1	3
6	Porto	1	1	0	0	+1	3
7	Rio Ave	2	1	0	1	-1	3
8	Benfica	1	0	1	0	+0	1
9	Sp Braga	1	0	1	0	+0	1
10	Chaves	1	0	1	0	+0	1
11	Belenenses	1	0	1	0	+0	1
12	Moreirense	2	0	1	1	-1	1
13	Pacos Ferreira	1	0	0	1	-1	0
14	Nacional	1	0	0	1	-2	0
15	Maritimo	1	0	0	1	-2	0
16	Tondela	2	0	0	2	-3	0
17	Feirense	1	0	0	1	-3	0
18	Estoril	2	0	0	2	-4	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Benfica	2	2	0	0	+4	6
2	Sp Braga	2	2	0	0	+3	6
3	Moreirense	1	1	0	0	+3	3
4	Guimaraes	1	1	0	0	+2	3
5	Porto	2	1	0	1	+1	3
6	Feirense	2	1	0	1	+1	3
7	Sp Lisbon	1	1	0	0	+1	3
8	Maritimo	2	1	0	1	-1	3
9	Belenenses	2	1	0	1	-1	3
10	Chaves	1	0	1	0	+0	1
11	Vitoria Setubal	1	0	1	0	+0	1
12	Rio Ave	1	0	1	0	+0	1
13	Tondela	1	0	1	0	+0	1
14	Boavista	1	0	1	0	+0	1
15	Pacos Ferreira	2	0	1	1	-2	1
16	Estoril	1	0	0	1	-1	0
17	Nacional	1	0	0	1	-2	0
18	Arouca	2	0	0	2	-4	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.