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Primeira Liga

Referee: Cosme Cunha Machado

Arouca

T S U U S

3–0

Full-time

Nacional

S T S T T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Arouca Nacional

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 50%

50%

Points per game

1,8

1,5

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

50%

Both score Ø 42%

50%

33%

Average goals

2,5

3,0

Scored

1,2

1,3

Conceded

1,3

1,7

Goal diff per game

-0,2

-0,3

This season — Primeira Liga · 31/31 matches

Win Ø 36%

39%

32%

Points per game

1,6

1,2

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

48%

52%

Both score Ø 52%

55%

48%

Average goals

2,5

2,7

Scored

1,3

1,2

Conceded

1,1

1,5

Goal diff per game

+0,2

-0,3

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 2–0

57% Possession 43%

14 Shots 14

5 Shots on target 3

3 Blocked shots 4

3 Goalkeeper saves 1

8 Corners 5

1 Offside 1

4 Free kicks against 13

2 Yellow cards 4

0 Red cards 1

The table before the match Arouca 5. · Nacional 9. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Benfica	32	27	1	4	+61	82
2	Sp Lisbon	32	25	5	2	+49	80
3	Porto	32	21	4	7	+31	67
4	Sp Braga	32	16	9	7	+23	57
5	Arouca	31	12	13	6	+6	49
6	Pacos Ferreira	32	13	9	10	+4	48
7	Rio Ave	32	13	8	11	+1	47
8	Estoril	32	13	7	12	+0	46
9	Nacional	31	10	7	14	-10	37
10	Belenenses	32	9	10	13	-23	37
11	Guimaraes	32	8	12	12	-11	36
12	Maritimo	32	10	5	17	-15	35
13	Moreirense	32	8	9	15	-14	33
14	Boavista	32	7	9	16	-14	30
15	Vitoria Setubal	32	6	11	15	-16	29
16	U. Madeira	31	6	8	17	-23	26
17	Academica	31	5	9	17	-24	24
18	Tondela	32	6	6	20	-25	24

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Benfica	16	14	0	2	+36	42
2	Sp Lisbon	16	12	3	1	+22	39
3	Sp Braga	16	11	4	1	+28	37
4	Porto	16	11	2	3	+18	35
5	Estoril	16	9	3	4	+8	30
6	Rio Ave	16	9	1	6	+4	28
7	Nacional	16	8	3	5	+5	27
8	Arouca	15	7	5	3	+7	26
9	Pacos Ferreira	16	7	4	5	+5	25
10	Maritimo	16	7	2	7	+4	23
11	U. Madeira	15	5	6	4	+1	21
12	Belenenses	16	5	5	6	-8	20
13	Guimaraes	16	4	7	5	+1	19
14	Academica	16	5	4	7	-8	19
15	Boavista	16	3	5	8	-8	14
16	Vitoria Setubal	16	2	8	6	-10	14
17	Moreirense	16	2	5	9	-10	11
18	Tondela	16	2	4	10	-13	10

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Sp Lisbon	16	13	2	1	+27	41
2	Benfica	16	13	1	2	+25	40
3	Porto	16	10	2	4	+13	32
4	Pacos Ferreira	16	6	5	5	-1	23
5	Arouca	16	5	8	3	-1	23
6	Moreirense	16	6	4	6	-4	22
7	Sp Braga	16	5	5	6	-5	20
8	Rio Ave	16	4	7	5	-3	19
9	Guimaraes	16	4	5	7	-12	17
10	Belenenses	16	4	5	7	-15	17
11	Boavista	16	4	4	8	-6	16
12	Estoril	16	4	4	8	-8	16
13	Vitoria Setubal	16	4	3	9	-6	15
14	Tondela	16	4	2	10	-12	14
15	Maritimo	16	3	3	10	-19	12
16	Nacional	15	2	4	9	-15	10
17	Academica	15	0	5	10	-16	5
18	U. Madeira	16	1	2	13	-24	5

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.